Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions due to gusty winds and low humidity continue through Friday evening across the High Plains.

- Temporary relief from the critical fire weather conditions will come this weekend with cooler temperatures and slight chances for a few showers and storms.

- Fire weather concerns will escalate once again next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Dry and windy conditions remain the primary story for the next several days, continuing fire weather concerns. While cooler temperatures prevail across the area today, the airmass remains quite dry. In addition, strong, gusty northwest winds continue across the area. Unfortunately, winds will be all over the place over the next 48 hours, which will present containment challenges for ongoing wildfires. The upper level shortwave responsible for the gusty winds today is pulling off to the east, which should allow winds to gradually weaken through the afternoon and then drop this evening. Winds will be variable for a few hours as the surface high pressure system shifts across the area and sets up to our east after midnight. As this occurs, we'll see the pressure gradient reverse, supporting increasing southerly winds over the high plains. These winds may be strong at times in the typical elevated areas of the Cheyenne and Pine Ridges. We should have a few hours in the morning of more widespread gusty southerly winds, particularly over Nebraska. A surface trough will push through the area Friday morning, clearing our eastern zones by the early afternoon, which will shift winds once again from south through southwest to west or northwest by mid afternoon. Friday's winds will be lighter than today, with consistent gusts around 25 to 35 mph (localized 45 mph) across the area. However, humidity will be significantly lower. Temperatures will surge back to the mid 80s to lower 90s over the High Plains with dewpoints largely remaining in the upper teens to 20s. This will lead to extremely low relative humidity. Widespread single digit RH is expected, and this could be locally as low as 5%.

We will get a little relief from the fire weather concerns this weekend. First, another shortwave trough will pass to our north. A strong surface high behind this features will encroach into our area Friday evening and push up against the higher terrain by Saturday morning. While this will come with cooler temperatures and higher humidity, we can expect another wind shift Friday evening. Expect a period of gusty northeast winds moving from northeast to southwest. There may be some low clouds or fog with this backdoor cold front, but confidence was too low to add this to the forecast at this time. Look for a cooler day on Saturday with breezy north winds anticipated. There will be a slim chance for a few showers, but the outlook for beneficial moisture is not very optimistic at this time as coverage looks to be limited.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The weather for Sunday can be a little tricky. A weak shortwave trough will be dropping through the Intermountain West as the Parent low sits and spins over the Great Lakes region of the US. There doesn't appear to be very much moisture associated with this shortwave and the models are depicting very little if any forcing to really help us overcome the stable dry air. Confidence is pretty low for any measurable rain so low Pop's (25% or lower) generally over the entire CWA with the exception of Laramie county that has 35% pops or less where the forcing seemed a little bit stronger. This shortwave may also develop some precipitation chances early Monday morning but those chances deteriorate by the afternoon on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday will have a ridge slowly push into the Intermountain West and start advecting warm dry air into the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period, with winds being the primary threat. Gusty winds will ease to generally less than 10 knots in the next hour or two across all sites. However, winds will ramp back up between 15Z and 17Z Friday, with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range. At the tail end of this forecast, winds will once again begin to trend downward.

CYS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Friday for WYZ417-418-430>433. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Friday for NEZ434>437.