Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 606 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Isolated seabreeze showers/storms each afternoon through the end of the week, then increasing Saturday through early next week.

- Moderate heat risk daily through the weekend.

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding possible late in the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid-level ridging will support warm, humid conditions and limited precipitation coverage through the end of the work week. Subsidence associated with the ridge will suppress widespread convection despite ample low-level Gulf moisture remaining in place. As a result, rain chances through tomorrow are expected to remain low and primarily confined to isolated streamer showers and afternoon seabreeze activity. Temperatures are forecast to stay near seasonal normals, with daytime highs generally in the 90s inland and cooler readings along the immediate coast. Elevated humidity will continue to support heat index values ranging between 100-110 degrees at times.

Rain chances are expected to increase beginning Saturday as the aforementioned ridge weakens and tropical moisture surges northward into South Texas from a broad area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche. PWATs are forecast to climb well above climatological normals for this time of year, exceeding 2 inches through much of the period and potentially approaching 2.5-2.6 inches by early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of South Texas through the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall possible in the more persistent convection. Additional upper-level support arrives early next week as a broad trough digs southward across the Plains, helping to further weaken the ridge and potentially drive a weak frontal boundary into the region. While fronts reaching our CWA in mid-June are relatively uncommon, guidance continues to indicate at least a weak boundary approaching and eventually stalling near the area by Tuesday. The combination of anomalously high moisture, increasing lift, and the potential frontal interaction may support the highest rain chances of the forecast period early next week, along with an increasing concern for localized flooding should heavier rainfall bands develop. WPC continues to highlight portions of our area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Sunday, with a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) in play for Monday.

Marine and coastal conditions are also expected to deteriorate through the weekend. Strengthening east to southeast flow across the Gulf, driven by that broad area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche, will increase swell periods to around 7-10 seconds and seas to 7-8 feet by Friday into Saturday. Combined with astronomically higher tides near the new moon phase, this will likely lead to an elevated risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding along area beaches through the weekend.

By mid-to-late week of next week, guidance suggests mid-level ridging will begin to reestablish itself across the region, allowing for a gradual decrease in rain chances. Temperatures may briefly trend slightly cooler during the wetter portion of the forecast due to increased cloud cover and precipitation before warming again as the ridge rebuilds.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A few spotty light showers are making their way inland over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, with any activity dying by later this evening. VFR conditions prevail currently but will deteriorate to MVFR over much of the area tonight, mainly between 05- 11Z. Southeasterly winds decrease to around 10 knots or less tonight, then revamp to a sustained 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period. Seas of 3-4 feet are expected tonight through Friday before increasing to 7-8 feet over the weekend in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the Gulf from a broad area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend becoming scattered to numerous early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.