Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Gradual warming trend through next week

- Showers and a few thunderstorms in the Victoria Crossroads

- Minor Coastal Flooding possible into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low to medium rain chances will exist in the Victoria Crossroads region today. This will due to a passing midlevel shortwave that will progress through the region by this evening. Behind it ridging will take over dominating the region bringing drier conditions through next week and a gradual warming trend will ensue. Highs will begin to rise back into the 100s by this weekend out west. Until the highs in the 80s and 90s will persist each day.

Tide levels are still expected to gradually decrease through the remainder of the week. However with levels expected to remain above 1.5ft MSL at Aransas pass through high tide through Friday and swells around 7-8 seconds, coastal flooding will be likely through then.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions can be expected to continue through most of the morning. We should see CIGs lift to VFR by late morning and by early afternoon at the latest, with some scattered shower activity across the Coastal Bend. A low probability of TSRA is forecast for VCT during the late afternoon into the early evening, so a PROB30 group was used to denote this. Prevailing MVFR CIGs will return around midnight Wednesday/Thursday. Winds this cycle will be out of the southeast, generally ranging between 5-10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Generally gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow will persist through the week as high pressure builds over the area. Rain chances continue today before drier conditions return through the remainder of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The chance remain for wetting rains today in the Victoria Crossroads drying out by this evening. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. Temperatures will climb back into the 80s by Wednesday, increasing to well above normal by the latter half of the week. Overall, fire weather concerns are not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...None.