Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Freeze Warning remains in effect for most of our CWA until 10 AM this morning, except for Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky, Wood, and Hancock Counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer air will return today and persist through early next week. There will be several chances for rain this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... After a cold start to our Tuesday morning, the weather pattern will shift to warmer temperatures starting later today. High pressure over the region will shift towards the East Coast later today. A return of southerly winds will advect in much warmer weather today with high temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 60s over NWPA and the upper 60s to lower 70s over NEOH and NWOH. Fair weather skies will continue for today with mostly sunny conditions. A weak front will drift southward across the lower Great Lakes region tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunder possible. No severe weather is expected. Some scattered rain showers may linger into Wednesday over portions of central Ohio, south of Highway 30. Temperatures will not be impacted by the passage of the front on Wednesday with highs back in the upper 60s to lower/middle 70s.

An upper level ridge will move eastward from the Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by Thursday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with even warmer temperatures by Thursday afternoon. Thursday's high temps will climb into the lower to upper 70s. And the spring like warmth will continue for Friday with high temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. A weak cold front will move from west to east across the region late on Friday with scattered showers and isolated thunder possible. Rain chances will become likely Friday evening and overnight. Temperatures will cool back down to near seasonable average this weekend but remain in the middle to upper 60s. Temperatures will warm back upwards by next Monday ahead of the next weather system moving across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Mid- and high-level clouds continue to spread across the region this morning. Some ceilings in the 8 to 15 kft range will be in and out, as a warm front moves through the airspace. Winds in the warm sector will be south to southwest with gusts in the 20 to 30 kts with good mixing expected this afternoon. The warm front will come back south as a weak cold front tonight and bring some scattered showers across the terminals. Overall, coverage of rain will be on the lower end and rain intensity will be light and likely not restricting visibility. There is some thunder potential tonight with showers but confidence in TS at a terminal is very low and the flavor of thunder may be more embedded in the lighter showers vs. bringing an intense non-VFR impact. Behind the rain and the front, MVFR ceilings will push southeast into the region and spread through the terminals toward the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

The lake is starting out quiet early this morning with light southerly flow over the basin. A warm front moving through the region will allow for increasing south to southwest flow this afternoon. The winds should hit a wall with the cold dome over the lake and suspect that winds will generally stay in the 10 to 15 kt range except for right at the lakeshore. The warm frontal boundary will sag south as a cold front tonight into Wednesday and bring some light onshore flow. High pressure will then enter over the lake and bring light and variable flow. This system will move east for Thursday and allow for light southerly flow to be favored. A low pressure system will target the region for Friday and Saturday. Southeast to east flow will increase ahead of this system on Friday. There is some uncertainty on the trajectory for this system over the weekend but once the system passes, winds will shift to the north for Saturday and Sunday.

CLE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ009>014- 018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None.