Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances trending more likely for next week. Aviation Discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Above normal temperatures may increase the risk of heat related illness through the weekend.

- 2. Isolated thunderstorms today and Friday; rain chances increase over the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Above normal temperatures may increase the risk of heat related illness through the weekend.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s Friday through the weekend with dewpoints in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees in the afternoon. This will likely lead to Heat Index values peaking from 100 to 105 each day, some of the warmest values to date in this early summer season. Although we could remain below Heat Advisory criteria, early season heat tends to contribute to increased risk for heat related illness so we are messaging caution even if an advisory is not issued. The potential for isolated to scattered convection further lowers confidence in reaching advisory conditions.

Key Message 2: Isolated thunderstorms today and Friday; rain chances increase over the weekend into early next week.

A classic summertime pattern has set up for late this week and early weekend. Surface high pressure will be east of the forecast area with upper ridging generally suppressing convective coverage. Even with ridging aloft slightly above normal atmospheric moisture and strong daytime heating will allow conditions to destabilize each afternoon through the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered coverage late this week and over the weekend with some enhanced coverage closer to the coast along a sea breeze. This pattern could support a few stronger pulse type cells leading to damaging downburst winds but a widespread threat is unlikely.

Moisture transport increases early next week with NAEFS IVT percentiles over 97 percent of climatology. With this in mind, expect a more active pattern with above normal moisture (and subsequently lower temperatures given higher rain chances) to kick in by Monday and last for several days.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

Isolated storm that impacted the Columbia terminals has weakened with a loss of daytime heating. Some lingering debris cloudiness possible with skies generally clearing into tonight and VFR conditions expected. Winds becoming light and variable at all terminals tonight. Once again, restrictions not expected with high probability of VFR conditions through the TAF period. Isolated showers and storms possible again tomorrow but probability of impacts to terminals at this point remains less than 30 percent so have not included it in TAF with this issuance. Winds generally westerly tomorrow between 5 to 10 knots with scattered cumulus around 5kft once again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated to widely scattered diurnal showers and storms possible into this weekend. Greater rain chances are expected early next week.

CAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.