Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Updated aviation discussion for the 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Fire Weather concerns remain elevated through the end of this week as drought conditions persist amid a dry airmass.

- 2. A gradual pattern change is expected late in the forecast period, with increasing rain chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Fire Weather concerns remain elevated through the end of this week as drought conditions persist amid a dry airmass.

Elevated fire weather concerns continue this week. Temperatures will be cool for a couple of days as a dry airmass becomes established. A couple of dry fronts, today and Wednesday, will pass through the area with little effect on our sensible weather. The only concern would be some brief elevated winds in the afternoon along the SC/NC border where the pressure gradients will likely be strongest. As of now, it does appear we will remain below any fire weather headline criteria despite daily minimum RH values at or below the critical 25%. SC Forestry continues the burn ban until further notice, so we will keep a close eye on conditions as they develop.

Key Message 2: A gradual pattern change is expected late in the forecast period, with increasing rain chances this weekend.

Tempering our expectations a bit, the pattern appears to be setting up favorably for increasing moisture and rain chances across the area beginning this weekend. Teleconnections like the NAO/PNA and MJO are forecast to shift into spaces that favor troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, resulting in better rain chances across the southeast. Medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show multiple disturbances passing through the area towards the end of the forecast period, coupled with better moisture (PW >125% of normal starting Saturday). So tentatively, it appears we can start considering the potential for some measurable rain, though it likely will make only a slight dent in our ongoing drought.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

Clear skies continue as surface winds have picked up out of the west to northwest between 6-10 kts with isolated gusts up to 15 kts. These winds continue before a diffuse front moves through tonight, shifting winds toward the northeast, but becoming light. FEW to SCT mid level clouds could move in with the front, but besides this, mostly clear skies are expected to continue overnight with light and variable winds. Once the inversion breaks Tuesday morning, winds pick up out of the northeast between 5-8 kts, continuing through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread restrictions expected through Friday.

CAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.