Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy west to northwest winds with gusts up to 40 mph today. Highest gusts in the foothills west of Billings and along the Dakotas Border. Isolated shower possible near Baker.

- Cold front Friday evening ushers in a cooler and wet Saturday.

- Warm and dry conditions return to start the work week.

DISCUSSION

Next 7 Days...

The shortwave and associated cold front that brought the gusty winds and widespread showers over the past day has almost completely exited the region. As this departs to the east, expect this afternoon and evening to be dry and mostly clear. The breezy winds are also leaving with this feature as well. This afternoon winds will taper off from west to east. Gusts in the 30s mph are possible in wide prone areas through the day, but overall a gradual decrease in magnitude is forecast. A few showers near Baker cannot be ruled out this afternoon.

Looking into tomorrow we remain under broad west-northwest flow which may allow for gusts in the 30s mph for locations near Harlowton with a weak gap flow, but winds will remain light elsewhere. As we will be behind the slow moving shortwave most of the day, and therefore a broad area of subsidence, mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are forecast. That NW flow will keep our temperatures near average though with minimal temperature advection.

Friday will start off with the benign conditions of the previous day, however our next shortwave trough will be digging into the region as it pivots around the parent upper level low centered over Western ON. This feature is reminiscent of the one that just passed through the region yesterday but models are depicting the vort max digging farther south and west. This could then be a good setup for some upslope precip on the northern aspects of the mountains. If the low continues to trend farther south then the low level winds may become too westerly for meaningful upslope in these areas. Regardles, the foothills near Red Lodge and all of the Bighorn Mountain foothills will see the most precip with this quick hitter of an event. While the precip will have a shower-like nature, there should not be much in the way of thunderstorms. Isolated lightning does remain possible though with 100-200 J/Kg ML- Cape. The locations mentioned above receiving the most precip should pick around 0.5-0.75" through the end of the day Saturday. While showers are forecast across the region, the best chance of a wetting rain (at least 0.1") are south of US-212 and near/west of Billings. Snow levels through the event will be fluctuating between 7kft and 9kft resulting in all snow accumulations occuring be above 9kft. This could result in minor to moderate impacts to the Beartooth Pass Saturday AM, mainly due to falling snow reducing visibility. Light rain/snow mix may have minor impacts to US-14 through the Bighorns as well.

Looking ahead, the parent upper level low continues to drift east into northern Ontario late this weekend. Once this feature finally moves eastwards enough, there is a signal that some weak ridging could build in for the start of the work week with warm temperatures and dry conditions returning. Do not get too used to this though, because another shortwave could move through mid to late next week brining more chances for showers and cooler weather. WMR

AVIATION

In general VFR will prevail through the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the east near KMLS-KBHK-K97M this afternoon. Gusty W-NW winds will continue through the day with widespread gusts of 25-40kts, highest in the east. Winds decrease into tonight with passing mid and high clouds. STP

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 049/077 049/064 044/070 048/077 055/086 060/084 055/083 01/U 74/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 22/T 11/U LVM 040/074 042/061 037/068 042/074 049/082 054/081 049/079 00/U 87/T 10/U 00/U 00/N 11/N 11/U HDN 045/076 047/065 040/070 043/075 049/084 056/081 051/081 00/U 63/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 11/U MLS 046/073 048/064 043/071 048/074 052/080 057/078 053/078 00/U 10/B 00/U 02/W 01/B 32/W 11/U 4BQ 046/074 048/062 041/068 047/072 051/080 057/079 053/081 00/U 65/W 00/U 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/U BHK 043/072 043/062 039/069 044/071 048/076 054/076 050/077 00/N 00/N 00/U 02/T 11/B 33/W 12/W SHR 041/074 043/059 037/065 039/071 046/080 053/080 048/081 00/U +9/T 22/T 11/B 00/B 12/T 12/T

BYZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MT...None. WY...None.