Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather returns areawide today along with moderating temperatures.

2) Wet weather potentially returns Friday night and last into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather returns areawide today along with moderating temperatures.

Shortwave and weak wave of low pressure exit off to our southeast this morning, with it we should see any remaining showers taper off from NW to SE. After that...building heights aloft and weak surface ridging will bring about dry weather for all areas today. We should see clouds begin to break up and sunshine break out with temperatures climbing into the 60s across WNY, cooler east of Lake Ontario with 50s quite common. More of the same Thursday with quiet dry weather and similar temperatures across the region. Possible cooler (10F to 15F) and maybe a passing shower Friday, this will all depend on where the tightening 850 hpa thermal gradient becomes established across the region. KEY MESSAGE 2...Wet weather potentially returns Friday night and then last into Saturday.

Shortwave energy and a weak sfc low tracking along a frontal boundary across the area will potentially bring the next chance for rain Friday night into Saturday. Given current guidance the best chance appears to reside across Western New York. This is where a fairly tight 850 hPa thermal gradient will reside. On the northeast side of this boundary dry weather may just continue through the weekend, especially across the North Country.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The wave of low pressure which brought the showers will move southeast of the area this morning. The threat for showers will taper off quickly with its passage. As much drier air moves in today, courtesy of building high pressure, any lower CIGS will return to VFR by late this morning or early afternoon across WNY, while some lower CIGs may hang on until mid to late afternoon east of Lake Ontario before a return to VFR.

Tonight...weak high pressure over the area will support VFR across all terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of afternoon showers.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers.

MARINE

Weak high pressure build in across the region today which will support mainly light winds and minimal wave action through Thursday.

A tightening sfc gradient and strengthening east-northeast flow Friday may support light to moderate chop on area lakes. Flow becomes just strong enough Saturday that low end SCAs may be need on the western end of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...None.