Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak cold front will bring a chance of some showers this evening and tonight.

2) Dry weather returns Wednesday with a day-to-day warming trend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A weak cold front will bring a chance of some showers this evening and tonight.

High pressure over the region will gradually depart off to our east this morning in advance of an approaching shortwave. Very dry low- levels in the sfc-700 mb layer which will support precipitation free conditions through most of the afternoon hours today. The main thing we will see is just an increase in mid-high clouds. Southerly flow will also develop on the western peripheral of the departing ridge which will help to quickly modify temperatures. We should see highs in the 40s to low to mid 50s across the area by this afternoon. With overall decent mixing in the afternoon winds will also pick up a bit with gusts up to 20 mph at times.

With the approach of the shortwave and the cold front there is the potential for some showers this evening and tonight. Have increased PoPs given NBM probabilities show a greater than 50% chance of seeing 0.01 of precipitation in spots. The showers will coincide with the arrival of a strengthening LLJ (+40 knots) this evening. Not expecting a lot of precipitation but it is something to be aware of if you head out and it would be a good idea to have an umbrella handy. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry weather returns Wednesday with a day-to-day warming trend.

Shower activity should wrap up fairly early Wednesday morning with the departure of the shortwave. Weak surface pressure will then take over with dry weather at a minimum through Thursday. We can also anticipate a modest warming trend to taking place across the region.

After Thursday...uncertainty increase as a warm frontal boundary begins to sets up across the region. Not only will this determine temperatures across our area but also precipitation chances as we head into the weekend. A closed low churning over the Canadian Prairies will also potentially bring additional chances for showers over the weekend. However...at this point it is a fairly low confidence forecast as model continue to not handle the closed low very well.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will exit off to our east today but will maintain VFR conditions.

Tonight...a shortwave and weak cold front will bring a chance of some showers. Expect VFR conditions to deteriorate to MVFR with some IFR conditions found across the higher terrain.

Outlook... Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of afternoon showers.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers.

MARINE

Southerly flow develops on the western side of the departing surface high today. This may bring some light to moderate chop this afternoon. A cold front passes through tonight but winds and waves will likely remain below SCA levels. High pressure builds into the lakes Wednesday which will bring light winds and wave action through the rest of the week.

BUF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...None.