Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 238 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 238 PM EDT Monday...

1. Unseasonably cold temperatures are expected tonight with a few localized records possible. Mainly dry conditions will persist with only a few showers possible late Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected through the end of the work week, with increasing chances for showers towards the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 238 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold, dry airmass is replacing our recent wetter weather regime as upper level ridging shunts the primary storm track northeastward into Canada. Afternoon cloud cover will dissipate with loss of surface heating leaving clear skies and light winds in place overnight. This will be an ideal setup for radiational cooling resulting in a quite cold cool off overnight into Tuesday. Lows are favored to be in the single digits to teens for the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont with upper teens and 20s elsewhere. Very dry conditions will help temperatures rebound tomorrow into the 40s and low 50s while supporting low RH ranging 25-40%. Fortunately, winds will be light and soil moisture will remain high enough to keep fire weather concerns at bay.

A weak trough will pass Tuesday evening into Wednesday supporting some elevation dependent showers. Most guidance keeps shower coverage minimal, but some CAMs do show a few showers possible for lower valleys. Will keep the forecast pointed towards drier solutions unless there is a larger shift in ensembles or more CAMs join the few that are showing wetter solutions. Temperatures moderate back to seasonal averages Wednesday with flow turning more southerly. Will keep an eye on Thursday for potential in an uptick in winds will a few models suggesting a backdoor, mostly dry front dropping through the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A closed upper low centered over the Canadian Maritimes will bring relatively dry and seasonably cool temperatures to the region for the end of the work week. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Chances for precipitation will increase heading into the weekend as the upper level low shifts eastward, although there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the details at this time given model spread and pattern evolution. Despite the shower chances, seasonable temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend and beginning of next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the forecast period, with skies gradually clearing through the evening into the overnight hours. A few lingering snow showers continue across the region this afternoon, but give the minimal coverage, have left any mention of showers out of the forecast as there is low confidence in any impacts at terminals. Winds this afternoon continue to be out of the northwest, 5 to 15 knots, with gusts of 18 to 25 knots possible this afternoon. Gusts will diminish towards this afternoon, with winds trending calm and/or terrain influenced overnight before becoming more southerly tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.