Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk continues through Sunday and returns again late next week. Heat Advisories may be needed Thursday and Friday.

- The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a low chance (20%) of tropical development with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche.

- Unsettled weather will continue through at least the middle of next week as deep tropical moisture interacts with an approaching frontal boundary.

- There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tonight and will increase to a High Risk this weekend. Increasing swell may result in minor coastal flooding late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The dry weather comes to an end Friday night as a westward-moving tropical wave currently located over the Bay of Campeche tracks towards eastern Mexico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center continues to maintain a low chance (20%) of tropical development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. This feature will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture into Deep South Texas later tonight into Saturday. Precipitable water values between 2 to 2.5 inches will support an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity starting early Saturday.

There is a medium to high (40 to 80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. However, There remains some uncertainty around timing of showers and thunderstorms. Due to slightly stronger winds aloft (fast storm motion) may result in the rainfall amounts between 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch. However, any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, and isolated amounts upwards of 1 to 2 inches will be possible in any shower or thunderstorm.

Rain wanes Saturday night across the region as another round of showers and thunderstorms develops over the Gulf waters and near the coast. Rain chances are moderate to high (30-70%) for Sunday with locally heavy rainfall possible once again.

The unsettled weather will continue across the region through at least the middle of next week as the high moisture content remains in place. A 500mb shortwave trough is forecast to swing over the Plains and Texas, pushing a weak cold front across the state Monday into Tuesday before stalling across South Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. The interaction of the deep tropical airmass with the frontal boundary is expected to bring our best rainfall chances (60 to 80%) for Monday and Tuesday. The latest model guidance continues to indicate the potential for heavy rainfall (2-3+ inches) Monday through Wednesday across portions of the CWA. The Weather Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas highlighted in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Monday through Tuesday night.

Increased cloud cover and rain chances will lead to slightly lower daytime temperatures through the weekend into early next week. However, a Moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk will continue across much of Deep South Texas through Sunday. Rain chances begin to decrease late Wednesday night into Thursday. The Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk returns Thursday and a Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk will be possible by the end of the week, especially along the coast. Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas Thursday and Friday.

There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches through at least tonight and will increase to a High Risk this weekend. Hazardous beach conditions, including coastal runup, will be possible as swell increases this weekend with a broad area of low pressure/tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche and eastern Mexico.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Through 06z Sunday....The main weather concern to aviation ops at the local terminals during the 06z TA period will be MVFR-IFR conditions that are expected to develop on Saturday via showers and thunderstorms stemming from the tropical wave brewing over the Bay of Campeche.

Latest GOES-19 Infrared Satellite imagery depicted SKC skies over the region. Over the next 6-9 hours, expect for mainly VFR conditions to prevail. However, expect for flying conditions to begin deteriorating around daybreak and thereafter as clouds increase and lower in elevation, and as showers and thunderstorms increase in probability and coverage.

Low VFR to MVFR conditions will be the prevailing flight categories Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, before mainly MVFR conditions prevail thereafter due to low clouds and showers and thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms (mainly diurnally driven) are expected to come in waves during the day on Saturday before potentially waning Saturday night due to the loss of daytime heating. 14z/Sat to 00z/Sun will be the window for the greatest probabilities and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Any showers or storms that move over a TAF site will have the capabilities of reducing cigs/vsbys to MVFR-IFR levels.

Winds will continue out of the southeast through the 06z TAF cycle with speeds between 5-15 kts and peak wind gusts as high as 20-25 kts. Winds will be strongest during the afternoon into the evening hours and mixing heights increase.

MARINE

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Slightly adverse to adverse marine conditions will develop along the Lower Texas Coast this weekend. Intermittent to periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be likely through early next week on the Laguna Madre and nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisories will become more likely by late in the weekend as swells increase on the Gulf waters. Rain chances will increase over the Gulf waters and along the Lower Texas Coast this weekend and continue into the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BRO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.