Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through the weekend.

- The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a low chance (10%) of tropical development over the next 48 hours and 7 days with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, which is expected to move over eastern Mexico this weekend. This will result low to medium rain chances on Saturday and Sunday.

- Unsettled weather continues into early next week as remnant tropical moisture interacts with an approaching frontal boundary. There is a potential for heavy rain with this set up.

- There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Seasonable temperatures and triple-digit heat index values will continue as mid and upper level ridging remains the main weather feature influencing Deep South Texas. However, isolated streamer showers or sea breeze activity cannot be ruled out each day through the end of the week as low level southeasterly flow transports Gulf moisture towards the region. Any activity should be rather short-lived, with brief rainfall being the main concern. Otherwise, the combination of mild nights, hot afternoons, and high humidity will result in a moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk across all of Deep South Texas. Continue to practice heat safety if spending a prolonged period of time outdoors take frequent breaks in the shade, stay hydrated, and wear loose-fitting, light colored clothing.

An unsettled weather pattern returns by the end of the week and into early next week, which will result in the return of near daily precipitation chances across most of Deep South Texas. The ridge overhead is expected to weaken as it shifts north and west by the end of the week. Meanwhile, a tropical wave currently located over the Yucatan is expected to translate west towards the Bay of Campeche by Friday and towards eastern Mexico this weekend. NHC maintains a low chance (10%) of tropical development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. Additionally, some tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Cristina will also translate towards the Bay of Campeche. This will result in anomalously high precipitable water values upwards of 2.0 inches, with plumes of amounts close to 2.5 inches, arriving across Deep South Texas as early as Friday afternoon and continuing through early next week. To add to this set up, a shortwave trough is expected to translate across the Plains and usher in a rare June cold front early next week as high moisture content persists across Deep South Texas.

There still remains uncertainty on the exact amounts and timing of any showers and thunderstorms at this time, but the set up is favorable for increasing rain chances and efficient rain-producing showers and thunderstorms that may lead to nuisance or isolated flooding across portions of the region. Friday through the weekend, expect a more active sea breeze (at a minimum), although the presence of instability and high precipitable water would support waves of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, and isolated amounts upwards of 1 inch cannot be ruled out with any robust activity. For early next week, it is still too early to discuss specific rainfall amounts and timing, but this set up (high precipitable water values, upper level support, and frontal boundary) would support high rainfall rates and the potential for isolated flash flooding with any slow-moving or training showers and thunderstorms. Probabilistic guidance is keying in on a low potential (10% or less) of amounts upwards of 4 inches across portions of the area. Continue to check back for updates over the next few days!

Otherwise, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least Friday evening. Adverse beach conditions, including coastal runup, cannot be ruled out as swell increases this weekend with the aforementioned broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Moderate to gusty southeast winds with a scattered cumulus field prevails across Deep South Texas early this evening. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings may be possible late tonight through around sunrise Friday, especially at MFE. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Moderate southeast winds this evening will decrease overnight into Friday morning. Southeast winds are forecast to increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots late Friday morning into the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will continue through the work week with slight to moderate seas and low to moderate southeast winds. An enhanced pressure gradient may result in SCEC conditions each afternoon through Friday. Adverse marine conditions return this weekend with increasing swell as a tropical wave approaches eastern Mexico, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Rain chances increase over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre by this weekend and continue into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BRO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.