Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Key Messages:

* Light, drizzly rain showers today.

* Prepare for a drastic change in apparent temperatures this weekend compared to last, with widespread "feels like" temps in the triple digits possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Low level southerly flow bringing scattered light rain primarily east of US-281 will diminish through today as a lingering frontal boundary departs. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will persist through much of the day, improving into the evening. Some high-res guidance suggests elevated moisture in the atmosphere will leave a chance for streamer showers over the waters and near the coast tomorrow morning. Beyond this, dry conditions prevail into early next week.

Still a bit chilly today under cloud cover, but temperatures should slowly increase through the week. Tomorrow, expect highs around normal. Ridging will build over west-central MX through the latter half of the week, bringing northwesterly upper level flow and dry air into the upper layers of the atmosphere. This, along with clearing skies, will allow temperatures to rise into the 90s by the weekend. Continued southeasterly flow at the surface will bring a drastic change in apparent temperatures compared to last weekend. There is a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk this weekend, with region-wide triple digit heat indices possible (except along the immediate coast). Temperatures in the upper 90s, with "feels like" temps near 110 are possible in the upper RGV and along the US-77 corridor.

At lower Texas beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of rip currents. Around high tide, water may run-up near the dunes at narrow beaches. A Coastal Flood Statement will be allowed to expire at 2 PM Tuesday; maximum observed water levels remained just shy of Minor Flood levels, but beach webcams show some narrowing beaches. Another may be needed tomorrow. High tide tomorrow is at 12:18 PM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Light rain showers moving northward will continue periods of MVFR through the afternoon. Showers moving over a site may briefly reduce ceiling conditions to MVFR. This evening, showers diminish and leave a window for VFR. Low cigs return around midnight, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions through the morning.

MARINE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly flow under a benign pattern will maintain 4-5 ft seas through the weekend. For the remainder of today and into tomorrow, rain chances of 20% or less will hang around, with a chance of thunder. Briefly gusty winds greater than 15 kts may bring temporary Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions today and tomorrow. Expect primarily dry conditions for the latter half of the week and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BRO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.