Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 616 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026

- Daily high temperatures in the 90s combined with high humidity will lead to heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees, resulting in a moderate to major heat risk

- Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are possible each day, increasing in coverage by Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

(Thursday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026

Conditions remain largely unchanged through Friday as high pressure remains over the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase over the weekend as an upper trough lifts across the Plains while sending several shortwaves just north of the region. In addition, a cold front will sag southward, eventually stalling across or just north of the CWA. The combination of increased surface convergence along the boundary and lift from the passing shortwaves will warrant an above normal (40-60%) chance of precipitation through the weekend. Our active pattern continues early next week as another upper trough drops into the Northern Plains while sending additional rounds of energy into the region.

The primary forecast focus is the increasing heat. High temperatures will consistently reach the low-to-mid 90s, with persistent southerly flow maintaining high humidity. Consequently, heat indices will climb to between 100 and 105 daily, creating moderate-to-major heat risks across Central Alabama. Heat Advisories may become necessary by the weekend, particularly for vulnerable populations without access to adequate cooling and hydration.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026

Patchy light fog has developed this morning, affecting TCL, MGM, and AUO with reduced visibility. TEMPO MVFR vis through 13z at these sites. VFR conditions through the period otherwise. Some CAMs have picked up on the possibility of a few showers or storms during the afternoon or early evening hours. These are expected to be isolated in nature and confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

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FIRE WEATHER

Low chances for showers and storms continue daily through the work week. Chances increase over the weekend as a front stalls nearby. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the next week. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.