Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 727 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026

- Heat: Daily high temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s combined with high humidity will lead to moderate-to-major heat risks (heat indices 100 to 105 F) through the weekend.

- Pattern Shift: An active, wet pattern arrives late Friday as a stalling front and shortwaves increase precipitation chances (40 to 80 percent).

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals an upper trough moving across the Plains as ridging remains in place across the southeast. An associated cold front can be analyzed stretching from North Texas up to the Great Lakes region. Despite high pressure in control, a swath of slightly elevated moisture across the state will lead to another round of isolated convection this afternoon as we reach peak heating. Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase late Friday into the weekend as an upper trough lifts across the Plains while sending several shortwaves just north of the region. In addition, the cold front will sag southward, eventually stalling across or just north of the CWA. The combination of increased surface convergence along the boundary and lift from the passing shortwaves will warrant medium to high (40-80%) chances of precipitation through the weekend. Rain will likely be heavy at times as a deep plume of Gulf moisture spreads across the region. Select forecast soundings hint at a deep warm cloud depth and a fairly saturated profile which is indicative of high rainfall rates. Our active pattern continues early next week as another upper trough drops into the Northern Plains while sending additional rounds of energy into the region. The greatest rain chances will gradually move south through early next week as the stalled boundary finally moves through the region. Rainfall amounts look to generally range from 2-4 inches through early next week.

The primary forecast focus is the increasing heat. High temperatures will consistently reach the low-to-mid 90s, with persistent southerly flow maintaining high humidity. Consequently, heat indices will climb to between 100 and 105 daily, creating moderate to major heat risks across Central Alabama. Heat Advisories may become necessary by the weekend, particularly for vulnerable populations without access to adequate cooling and hydration.

95/Castillo

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 727 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026

VFR conditions and light winds prevail through this TAF cycle. Similar to this afternoon, isolated showers and storms are forecast Friday afternoon. Confidence is too low in any cell impacting one of the terminals at this time so have left any mention out of this update. Better rain chances will move into TCL and BHM outside of this cycle and through the weekend.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Low chances for showers and storms continue daily through the work week. Chances increase over the weekend as a front stalls nearby. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the next week. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.