Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1147 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026

- Quiet weather anticipated through the next few days with high temperatures in the 80s.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the remainder of the week as dry fuels, low daytime humidity, and occasional windy conditions continue.

- Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances this weekend with a low to medium chance for strong to severe storms on Monday.

DISCUSSION

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026

High pressure will persist across the Southeastern CONUS today through much of the day on Thursday. This will lead to generally quiet weather with highs in the 80s each afternoon. Due to the continuous dry air mass in place, we can expect cooler overnight temperatures as a result of effective radiational cooling each night. The pattern begins to shift on Friday as the high pressure builds eastward and we get more zonal flow aloft for the weekend. During this time, a few shortwaves slide through the otherwise zonal flow leading to increased rain chances Friday night through Monday.

A low pressure system is expected to develop in the Plains Sunday night and lift northeastward into the Midwest by Monday. The cold front associated with this low is expected to push through Central AL Monday through early Tuesday morning. There are still quite a few questions on the evolution of this low pressure system as it lifts northeastward. Essentially, does it become a deeper closed low that occludes with time, or does it remain an open wave aloft. These scenarios paint a different picture on the severe weather risk for Central AL. For now, the forecast has a low to medium chance (level 2 of 5) for severe weather Monday into Monday night. Some details remain to be determined, but broadly speaking, the setup and the environment would support the threat for damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes.

25/Owen

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026

High pressure will remain in place across the area over the next 24 hours leading to generally light to variable winds. A weak upper level impulse is expected to slide through Central AL this afternoon and evening, which will result in some high clouds advecting into the region. However, no impacts are expected to the TAFs with this activity. As we saw this morning, there's at least a low chance for shallow river fog at TCL, but my confidence isn't high on it spreading far enough to impact terminal to include in the TAF at this point.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

25/Owen

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1147 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026

Dry weather will be the main story through the next several days as we near or exceed critical RH values during the afternoons. With the high pressure in place, winds should remain generally light and variable, but elevated fire concerns are still present due to the dry fuels and low humidity values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.