Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

- Heat: Heat indices are expected to range from 100-105 degrees through the weekend, creating a moderate to major heat risk. Please prioritize heat safety precautions.

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern begins with periods of heavy rainfall expected, particularly across the southern half of Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast, with localized higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

Convection is over for tonight with mid and high cloudiness lingering on satellite in its wake. A surface boundary is expected to stall out and push back northward on Saturday with little assistance from the zonal upper flow around a Southern US ridge to get it through the area. The surface front movement is in response to a second surface front pushing southeast across out of the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. For Saturday, only low diurnally enhanced convection is expected with less focus. This second front is the one that we will be looking at for increased convection starting Sunday into Monday. This front is also expected to stall, but it is expected to progress across most of our counties with a moderate chance of stalling across the southern fringe counties of Central Alabama late Monday into early Tuesday. Temperatures will decrease behind the surface boundary some, but that will be partly due to continued cloud cover and rain chances during the day as we are not expected to dry out across much of the area behind it. Rain chances will stay elevated for many, especially the southern half of Central Alabama with broad upper troughing expected with disturbances interacting with the lingering boundary. The surface boundary may meander a little further southward across Southern Alabama before stalling again and fizzling out with onshore moisture coming back into play for the second half of the week. At the end of the forecast for Friday, we see yet a 3rd frontal system approach to increase rain chances across the northern counties with a medium probability of it stalling across the Tennessee Valley to round out our week as temperatures and humidity values creep back up toward next weekend once again.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

The region will remain under the influence of upper-level ridging today, keeping most terminals in VFR category for the entire TAF period. However, scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but confidence was only high enough to introduce PROB30's for this activity. All terminals (except AUO) are carrying a PROB30 group for TSRA between 13/20-24z.

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FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances increase over the weekend as a front stalls across the northern portions of the area. Rain chances remain higher for much of next week. Ample moisture in place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the entire forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.