Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions across most of western and much of southern North Dakota today.

- Near-record high temperatures in the 80s to near 90 for most of western through central North Dakota today.

- 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly south central and east this evening. Low to medium chances of rain Thursday followed by low chances of wrap around showers, mostly in the form of snow, Thursday night through Saturday.

- Strong west to northwest winds are likely Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Surface low pressure will deepen over Montana today while thermal ridge slides across the Northern Plains. The tightening pressure gradient will result in windy conditions across most of the state. For the most part, these winds will maintain a southerly direction, perhaps with the hint of an easterly component. However, much of the southwest may see more of a southwesterly component due to being closer to the center of the low and behind a boundary. In addition to windy conditions, expect very warm temperatures for this time of year ranging from the mid 70s northeast around 90 southwest, which could break a couple records.

Most CAMs are painting showers across the forecast area today. However, with the abundance of dry air through the lower levels, it seems unlikely anything of substance will reach the ground. As the low advects moister air into south central and eastern North Dakota late this afternoon and overnight, shower and thunderstorm chances enter the picture. Overall coverage will likely be isolated to scattered in nature. Models are consistent in marginal bulk shear, though vary a bit in how much moisture and therefore how much instability will be available late this afternoon and early evening. As such, a strong storm or two remains possible with a very low probability of a storm becoming severe.

For Thursday, expect very windy conditions as the surface low gradually chugs from west to east along/near the International Border, and a strong cold frontal boundary passes through. The EFI has trended back up slightly for western North Dakota, though that doesn't change the overall message at this point as confidence remains high in regard to the potential for advisory level winds. Especially for the western half of the state. Though some uncertainty remains, Friday winds continue to trend down somewhat as models favor loosening of the pressure gradient to at least some degree. Still, near advisory level winds remain possible.

In regard to precipitation chances Thursday through the end of the week, NBM still maintains 20 percent rain chances over the eastern forecast area to 70 percent chances in the northwest. However, with the low favoring a more northerly track, dry slotting is likely to dominate most of the forecast area most of the time. Still, wraparound snow remains possible Thursday night through Saturday at times as the surface low retrogrades from southern Manitoba and back into central Saskatchewan. The NBM has currently removed accumulating snow from the forecast through Saturday, though light accumulations are always possible with any heavier wraparound snow showers that may develop.

With the more northerly track of this system, temperatures are still progged to become much cooler for this weekend, though are noticeably forecast a bit warmer than even 24 hours ago. Current highs are mainly in the 40s to low 50s, while lows are mostly in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A slight warming trend is then favored into the middle of next week.

There remains the potential for another low behind this system Sunday and into early next week. NBM PoPs currently range from 20 percent north to 60 percent near the ND/SD border. A mix of rain and snow are possible, though the exact track of the system early next week remains uncertain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility are generally expected through the period. Windy conditions with a southerly component will develop today, though will begin to diminish during the evening hours. There is a chance that showers, along with a few rumbles of thunder, could develop in the James River Valley towards the end of the period. Confidence remains too low to add to the KJMS TAF for now.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 422 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

With a very warm and dry airmass remaining in place, minimum relative humidity values will drop into the teens for most of western and parts of south central ND this afternoon. Combined with windy conditions, this will result in critical fire weather conditions across much of the area. Therefore, upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for today. Conditions are a little more questionable for Morton, Mercer, and Oliver counties. However, with observations coming in drier in recent days than what was forecast, it won't take much of an overperformance of winds to produce critical conditions there as well. One additional note is that a northwest to southeast boundary will bring lower dewpoints and a windshift to a more southwesterly direction across much of southwestern ND this afternoon. Conditions will likely not be as windy while this boundary is passing through.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034- 040>048-050-051.