Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below average temperatures favored through early next week, with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s and lows mostly in the 40s.

- Breezy northwest winds expected through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Showers and clouds continue to dissipate this evening, with only a few isolated showers remaining, moving east-southeast. Will readjust POPs based on latest trends. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms continue early this evening, also driven by mid level embedded energy pushing southeast across the region. Expect convection to dissipate and clouds to start decreasing as we get closer to sunset and especially thereafter. Tweaked sky cover and POPs based on latest observations and trends.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Currently cyclonic flow at the lower and mid levels are producing widespread scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This is all rotating around an upper low near Hudson Bay Canada. At the surface breezy northwest winds are present post cold frontal passage this morning. No severe thunderstorms are expected this evening as CAPE is well under 1000 J/kg, with shear around 15kts. As the diurnal heating ends, so will the showers and thunderstorms today.

This cyclonic flow will continue through this weekend. Another shortwave embedded in the flow will move in Friday. Most CAMs have more scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon so that was added to the PoP forecast Friday afternoon. Friday will be slightly warmer with highs near average in the central and south, and breezy to strong northwest winds will continue, especially this weekend. The rest of the weekend a slight surface high pressure will slide into eastern Montana, ending the diurnal showers and thunderstorms. That surface high will pull cooler temperatures down from Canada into North Dakota Saturday. Leading to high temperatures 10 degrees below average across the state. Towards the end of the weekend into early next week, northwest flow will setup. During this period, warmer 850mb temperatures will move back east over the state. Leading to temperatures warming back to average by the middle of next week. Another shortwave in the flow will move into the state again Monday, resulting in more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night a surface low off the northern Rockies, and strong mid level flow will create more chances for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rest of the week could either be a slight ridge over the Northern Plains, or zonal flow with active shortwaves moving in.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z forecast period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms early this evening, dissipating at or around 02Z this evening, along with the sky trending more FEW-SCT. Northwest winds will gust 15 to 25 knots this evening, decreasing with time. A few stronger wind gusts will be possible associated with precipitation. Another day of diurnally driven cloud cover and some precipitation activity forecast during the day on Friday.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.