Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update. Hot and humid conditions will continue through the end of the week along with the potential for a few severe thunderstorms. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions through the end of the week will lead to an increased risk in heat related illnesses, especially for valley areas.

2) The potential for a few severe thunderstorms continues through this afternoon as well as on Friday which could bring damaging winds and heavy downpours.

3) Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday associated with another cold front. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially south and west of Albany.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Hot and humid conditions will remain in place through the end of the week. Partial sunshine through Friday along with 850 hPa temperatures between +17 and +20C will allow for high temperatures to reach the mid-80s to mid-90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will result in heat index values (feels- like temperatures to reach the mid-90s to lower 100s, for most valley areas. Heat advisories remain in effect through the end of the week for an increased risk for heat related illnesses. The experimental NWS HeatRisk is in the moderate to locally major categories through Friday. A passing cold front later Friday will bring less humid conditions for the weekend and feels-like temperatures below heat advisory criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The hot and humid conditions will allow for some thunderstorm development through the end of the week. One shortwave near Lake Erie will slowly track eastward into the evening hours. This shortwave is generating numerous thunderstorms which will propagate eastward through this afternoon. Timing of these showers and storms to reach western areas is likely not until 7-8pm or even slightly later, so this convection will likely begin to weaken as it nears our area, but still bring some rain showers and a possible rumble of thunder to areas especially along and south of I-90, through the evening hours. Prior to that, while there is some instability present, weak shear (about 20 kt or less) and lack of forcing may result in rather isolated coverage showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon with the latest CAMs favoring areas along and east of the Hudson Valley. Whether or not these storms can reach severe limits is uncertain, but a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place through this evening. Any storm that can become severe will be capable of producing locally damaging winds and a brief downpour.

After a break in convective activity late tonight into Friday morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected for Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front. MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6km shear values around 25-30 kt could be enough to produce a few severe thunderstorms. Storm coverage still looks uncertain but likely greater than today. Damaging winds look to be the primary threat with some of the taller storms capable of producing some hail. Some heavy downpours will be possible as well. We remain outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Friday from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Following a dry day on Saturday, another cold front and short wave aloft are expected to move across the area in the Sunday afternoon to evening time frame. If the front approaches during the diurnally favored afternoon to early evening hours, there could be some strong to severe T-storms that develop. Strong zonal westerly flow aloft looks to result in deep layer wind shear of potentially 40-50+ kt. Should sufficient instability develop as the cold front approaches with temperatures expected to be well into the 80s, storm organization would occur. SPC has issued an equivalent Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Sunday for areas south and west of Albany.

Pleasant weather (cooler conditions and lower humidity) return behind the front for early next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z/Friday...VFR conditions continue across all terminals for the remainder of this afternoon. Current radar shows a small area of high reflectivity in the vicinity of KALB but since it is already moving south, no impacts to flying conditions are expected here or at KPSF. The first possibility of showers is at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF beginning from about 01z-06z tonight. KALB should not see any changes to flight conditions, however KPOU and KPSF could see isolated thunderstorms developing which could bring some heavier showers lowering conditions to MVFR if it occurs over these terminals. Confidence is low if these will occur tonight though so it is included in a PROB30. A brief break of VFR is then expected before another chance of showers, first at KPSF around 09z and then at KPOU around 12z which could lower flying conditions to MVFR again. KGFL and KPSF will likely see fog/mist develop as well in the early morning hours lowering visibilities to IFR/MVFR until sunrise. Between about 12z-16z all terminals are expected to return to VFR with KPOU returning to VFR last.

Winds from the west/southwest this afternoon remain breezy with speeds 5-10 kt and gusts up to 20 kt at KALB and KPSF. Winds then begin to taper off into the evening and overnight, except if any thunderstorms develop where gusts can be expected 15-20 kt. Calm overnight winds pick back up by morning from the northwest at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF and from the southeast at KGFL with speeds 5-10 kt into the afternoon.Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures(Year Set):

Thursday June 11: Albany: 94(1947) Glens Falls: 94(1894) Poughkeepsie: 95(1973)

Friday June 12: Albany: 95(2017) Glens Falls: 92(2017) Poughkeepsie: 95(1933)

ALY WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ049-050-052- 053-059-060-064>066. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ038>041-043- 047>053-059>061-063>066-082>084. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ025. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for MAZ025. VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for VTZ013-015.