Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool, cloudy conditions today with scattered showers tapering off this afternoon. Additional chances for showers on Saturday, mainly south and west of Albany, although forecast confidence is low.

2) The combination of dry and breezy conditions on Thursday may lead to an elevated risk for fire spread.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

With a warm front positioned to the south/west of our region, isentropic lift to the north/east of the boundary will result in some showers across much of the area this morning into early afternoon. Radar indicating scattered showers moving in from the west, although surface dewpoint depressions are between 10-20 degrees so there is likely more virga than precip reaching the ground at the moment. As the column moistens, more precip should reach the ground into this morning. Expecting mainly scattered coverage except more numerous from around Kingston south. Precip could fall as a rain/snow mix in some higher terrain areas in the S. Greens and Berkshires, but amounts will be light with only a coating on some grassy surfaces. Precip will taper off from west to east this afternoon as isentropic lift dissipates. With the warm front not advancing north though, we will be stuck in a cool/cloudy regime through the day. Highs will only reach the lower 40s to lower 50s, with the coolest temperatures east of the Hudson Valley and in the mountains.

The next chance of showers looks to be on Saturday, as a weak wave of low pressure is expected to track SE from the Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic region. Our area should be along the NE periphery of this system with an omega block pattern potentially keeping much of our area dry, as the best forcing/moisture may be south/west. Will stick to NBM PoPs for now with 25-35% for areas south/west of the Capital District and < 15% north/east. Will continue to monitor trends over the next few days, as a shift in the blocking pattern could result in the track of the wave shifting.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There continues to be the potential for an elevated risk of fire spread on Thursday, due to a combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds. Not much has changed in the forecast, with RH values expected to drop into the 28-38% range during the afternoon along with northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph as the pressure gradient increases. These values look to fall short of red flag thresholds, but a Special Weather Statement may be needed depending on if fuels become receptive. There will be some light rain showers and cloudy skies today, although skies will turn mostly sunny on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06z Thursday...Flying conditions remain VFR at all terminals as of 1:15 AM EDT with scattered showers moving in from the W/SW ahead of an approaching warm front. Showers increase in coverage over the next few hours, lasting through early to mid-morning. Mainly low-end VFR to high-end MVFR vsbys withing showers expected. However, cigs look to trend down to MVFR/fuel alternate by around or just after sunrise for all terminals. Some pockets of IFR can't be ruled out for a few hours from 11-15z, especially at GFL/PSF, but confidence is not high enough to include IFR cigs in the TAFs at this time. Any IFR cigs rise by mid to late morning, but prevailing MVFR stratus 1500-2500 ft expected to remain at all terminals through this evening into tonight. Towards the end of the TAF period, cigs look to lower again to low-end MVFR to IFR. Winds will be from the S/SE at around 5-10 kt through this morning, then increase to around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt (locally 20-25 kt at ALB) through much of today. Winds diminish to 5 kt or less after 00z this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.