Area Forecast Discussion

UPDATE

06Z Aviation Discussion Updated

AVIATION

Tonight, a system moving through the western Gulf of Alaska will impact the region. As the system arrives, it will bring rain and low clouds to areas PAJN Northward. As the system arrives, it will bring rain and low clouds. The current MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR, and potentially LIFR. With the lowest conditions expected along the Northern Gulf Coast. By 18-21z Sunday, the system looks to exit our area and conditions will improve to VFR.

For the southern portions of the area, a ridge will remain in place for the next 24 hours. Given recent rainfall and light winds, confidence is increasing in fog developing across southern portions of the area. Any fog that develops should clear out with daytime heating.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT

411 PM AKDT May 2 2026

SYNOPSIS... Key Messages:

- Another front moves into the NE Gulf coast through Sunday afternoon, bringing another round of rain to Yakutat.

- Rain chances decrease moving eastward across the panhandle with drier conditions expected through early next week as high pressure setups up across the area.

- Clearing skies and above average temperatures expected through Sunday afternoon across the inner channels, with some areas entering the top ten daily high for early May across S Panhandle.

SHORT TERM... A couple important features drive our mostly benign weather for the next few days, including the weekend. Tonight in Sunday, a warm front pushes northeastward into the northern half of the panhandle. Not expecting much moisture associated with this front, primarily along the NE gulf coast with upslope flow. A deepening trough upstream looks to strengthen our ridge aloft, putting a majority of the panhandle into high pressure by Sunday, with clearing by Sunday afternoon. Naturally, this looks to reduce much of the panhandles PoPs to 0, with the exception of Yakutat. Over in south British Columbia, clearing and plenty of sun looks to cause a stronger thermal gradient in the southern panhandle, enhancing NW winds in Ketchikan up to possible gusts to 25-30 mph. Then, with warm air already over the southern panhandle with clearing skies and plenty of sun, its possible that Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and PoW Island could get into the low 70s. For Ketchikan specifically, this would put them in the number 2 spot for record highs for May 4th, trailing behind the 1915 record of 81 degrees.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday Through Friday/... A slow pattern shift will be underway from Tuesday onwards, as a more active pattern (by spring standards) increasingly takes hold.

The ridge which has been shielding the southern half of the panhandle from the bulk of the precip begins to subside and move back south through Tuesday, as the long wave trough over the eastern Pacific slowly meanders east and the panhandle is increasingly influenced by impulses moving up along its its eastern flank. A series of shortwave troughs and weak areas of ridging will consequently race up along the eastern flank, parading through SE AK. As they move through, expect periods of light rain to push through as well, especially on Wednesday. Not expecting anything too significant in the way of rainfall totals from these waves, but alongside chances of light rain, do expect them to keep bring more widespread cloud cover back across all areas of SE AK, as opposed to being largely focused on the northern half of the panhandle as had been the case previously.

Temperatures will be more of a mixed bag. While Tuesday will feature above average temperatures, especially for the southern panhandle (where low to mid 60s remain very much possible), the subsidence of the ridge and the concurrent return of widespread cloud cover will see temperatures return to more seasonable averages by Wednesday with high temperatures generally in the 50s and lows in the 40s.

Confidence is slowly growing in the potential for a stronger and more organized system to move up from the south and arrive between late Friday and Saturday. Ensembles have broadly come into agreement on the potential for elevated winds and widespread rainfall, though the actual magnitude and intensity of these elements still remains a forecast challenge.

AVIATION.../through 00z Monday/ General MVFR flight conditions continue across the panhandle this afternoon with CIGS AoB 2500 ft as ridging builds in across the N Pacific towards the panhandle. With saturated low levels in combination with high pressure moving in, anticipating MVFR flight conditions to continue through the evening into the overnight hours, with IFR to LIFR conditions developing through this evening into early Sunday morning, best estimate between 8z to 14z. Moving through Sunday morning, slow improvement expected before daytime heating and low level mixing allow for improving conditions to predominate VFR 21z to 00z.

Strongest winds remain at Haines and Skagway with sustained winds 15 to 20kts with gusts up to 30kts. High forecast confidence strong winds will continue into the evening before slowly diminishing through Sunday morning. Elsewhere across the panhandle, winds remain around 10kts or less through the evening before going near calm and variable overnight as a surface high builds across the central and southern panhandle.

Forecast Confidence: - Low to Medium confidence on CIGS and Visbys through the overnight period. High confidence in VFR conditions developing by Sunday afternoon. - High confidence on winds and precipitation chances.

MARINE...

Outside waters: An incoming front into the NE gulf coast will increase southeasterly winds to 25-30 knots between Cape Suckling and Icy Cape with wave heights 9-13 ft followed by 15-20 knot southwesterlies and diminishing wave heights. Building high pressure over the panhandle and eastern coast looks to strengthen northwesterlies off the coast of Prince of Wales Island and Dixon Entrance to 15-20 knots Sunday morning.

Inside: Southwesterly winds in Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and Chatham Strait looks to diminish into the overnight period, with much of the central panhandle looking to drop to calm conditions by 10 PM tonight. Looking to see these conditions continue on into Sunday for the central panhandle, and up to a moderate to fresh breeze for Clarence Strait due to the aforementioned northwesterlies.

Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet gets special mention for its continued fresh breezes through the night. Westerly to southwest flow aloft over mountains is expected to keep lee troughing in this channel for longer. Confidence is medium for this outcome, but from pattern recognition, went a bit more pessimistic by keeping stronger winds in for longer.

AJK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.