Area Forecast Discussion

MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE

No major changes to ongoing forecast this morning as front departs the area, leaving behind intermittent light rain and overcast skies clearing through the afternoon. Strongest sustained winds through Tuesday expected within Lynn Canal northward to Skagway, up to 20 kts/23 mph, elsewhere across the panhandle, winds remain largely 15 kts/17 mph or less. High temperatures today expected to reach into the low to mid 40s across the northern panhandle, increasing into the mid 40s to low 50s along and south of a line from Sitka to Angoon to Petersburg.

AVIATION

/through 18z Wednesday/ MVFR to VFR flight conditions ongoing across the panhandle as front departs the area, with intermittent rain showers, CIGS 1500 to 5000ft and prevailing greater than 6 sm visbys. Anticipating trends to remain largely the same through Tuesday evening, with precipitation coming to an end and gradual improvement to widespread VFR flight conditions developing through early Wednesday afternoon. Expecting cigs overnight will decrease as an area of high pressure of the Gulf of Alaska moves eastward over the area, with any lingering low level moisture trapped beneath.

Winds through the period will remain light, around 10kts or less, but can't rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts through the afternoon, returning near calm and variable overnight into Wednesday morning. No major LLWS concerns through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 459 AM AKDT Tue Apr 21 2026

SHORT TERM...The benign pattern begins now, with the shortwave currently over the panhandle and expecting to exit to the east by the end of the morning. In its wake is persistent westerly, dry flow, shifting northwesterly over the course of the day. This means an end to rain and snow for the panhandle, with clearing skies. Ketchikan and Prince of Wales Island are expected to remain mostly clear for the day, with areas in the northern half clearing out during the late morning to early afternoon. Currently have temperatures around the mid to upper 40s, but may need a temperature adjustment depending on how much solar radiation heats up the areas. Needless to say; however, sea breezes are in store for the panhandle, with relatively benign weather extending all the way until the end of the month.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/... A relatively benign pattern is in store for SE AK, so minimal changes have been made to the forecast. Ridging over the gulf continues to build Wednesday into Thursday, letting the southern panhandle see more of a break through the week. Dry weather will persist for much of the southern panhandle and parts of the central panhandle into the weekend, with only small chances for the occasional light shower to reach the outer coast. The ridging is set up in such a way that the northern panhandle will see onshore flow continue scattered, light showers through the period, with potential for long breaks with broken skies in between. The northeastern gulf coast looks to remain the exception through Thursday, with Yakutat most likely seeing the edges of a front along the northwestern gulf coast continue to funnel moisture into the area through the rest of the week and into the weekend. For any area that sees rainfall through this period, rates will remain on the lighter side with the exception just being for the occasional pocket of heavier showers. Models are mostly in line for this period, but start to split going into Friday night and Saturday. The EC has come more in line with the other models in the most recent run, but is still trying to bring a frontal band more eastward into the northern panhandle for Saturday. The forecast continues to lean more towards the GFS and Canadian, with this front staying in the central gulf and dissipating before it reaches the panhandle.

High temperatures will gradually increase through the week, reaching into the 50s for the northern panhandle, mid 50s for the central panhandle, and the high 50s and potentially low 60s for the southern panhandle. Potential sea breezes will keep temperatures along the water from reaching the maximum potential highs, but inland, sunny areas are more likely to hit them. Clear skies also mean low temperatures may drop lower than expected overnight, though mid 30s to low 40s looks to be the current trend. Light winds are expected through the period, but clear skies and warming daytime high temperatures may cause sea breezes to pick up through the inner channels and for coastal communities midday through the afternoon. With these clear skies and light winds, the possibility of isolated fog development through the early morning hours exists. This will depend on how much moisture remains through the dry period, as well as potential for a low marine boundary layer to push in from over the gulf which could limit initial fog development and instead blanket the outer coast of the panhandle and into the Icy Strait Corridor with a low cloud deck. With the potential for on and off showers persisting in the northern panhandle, if skies manage to clear out overnight, fog development will be more likely through the Icy Strait Corridor later in the week once the southern panhandle has had more time to dry out.

MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure will continue to be the main driver of winds and seas, with persistent 15-20 knot winds for most of the eastern gulf. Additionally, seas look mostly persistent, 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Moderate to fresh south to southwesterly breezes in Icy Strait and Lynn Canal are expected to remain mostly persistent through the day before finally relaxing as the suns sets. For the southern half, Sumner and Clarence Strait, are expected to remain mostly stable W to NWerlies at 10 to 15 knots. For the channels in the central panhandle, expecting winds to be mostly light air.

AJK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.