Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers are tracking across the region this afternoon and will continue through this evening. A few weak thunderstorms are possible, but no severe weather is anticipated.

- Strong northwesterly winds return today, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. The highest gusts will be located over central South Dakota, where isolated gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour may occur.

- After a brief warmup on Friday with highs in the 80s, cooler temperatures are expected this weekend, ranging in low to mid 70s. This is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

UPDATE

Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Keeping a close eye on wind observations this afternoon, and widespread 30-40 mile per hour gusts have been observed as of 18Z. The highest winds so far have been located over Lyman County, which remains in line with expectations from previous forecasts. There may still be a stray gust or two that reaches Wind Advisory criteria (45 miles per hour), but mid-level support still appears to be lacking for a widespread, long duration Wind Advisory event.

Light rain showers are also making their way across the forecast area this afternoon, with two main areas of focus currently. Showers over eastern South Dakota are expected to move out of the forecast area within the next hour or two, while showers over north central South Dakota will continue to progress eastward over the rest of the afternoon. With some marginal MUCAPE (~500 J/kg) in the area, can't entirely rule out some isolated thunderstorm development as the latter group of storms tracks into the James River Valley this afternoon. However, no lightning has been observed thus far with these showers. Any storms that remain over the area this evening will begin to dissipate, as MUCAPE will begin to diminish around 00Z thereby shutting down the already weak convection. A front will drift southward over the forecast area on Friday, potentially bringing additional chances for some light rain showers, the highest of those chances being over eastern South Dakota. Similar to today's rain showers, can't entirely rule out some isolated weak thunderstorms. However, no severe weather is anticipated at this time.

After a brief warmup Friday, the colder airmass held in place by a longwave trough aloft will bring the return of cooler temperatures to the Northern Plains. Highs over the weekend and into the start of next week will be in the low to mid 70s across the forecast area, which is around 5-10 degrees below mid-June normals. Some light rain showers may be possible early week, but at this point indications are that conditions will not be favorable for severe weather. There is some signal for a warmup and a return to near-normal to perhaps slightly above normal temperatures by mid to late week next week. However at this point in the forecast, ensemble clusters show low confidence on the timing of when this warmup will take place.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail over the next 24 hours. Isolated to widely scattered showers will persist across the region for several more hours before tapering off later this evening into the early overnight hours. For the time being, KABR/KATY and KMBG have the greatest likelihood of experiencing one of these showers (fairly low probability of sub-VFR conditions with any of these showers). But, if it looks like something might even get into KPIR, will make the necessary adjustments as needed.

ABR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.