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000 FXUS65 KABQ 202357 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 557 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 544 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026
- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms across western and central NM Monday and potentially the central high terrain Tuesday will result in gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph and patchy blowing dust. Low chance of new fire starts from dry lightning.
- There is moderate to high confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday and for western and central New Mexico on Friday. This will increase the threat of rapid fire spread with any fire starts.
- Strong southwest and west winds will result in difficult crosswinds for high profile vehicles on north-south highways Wednesday through Friday.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Showers have begun to develop early this afternoon, with coverage generally focusing south of I-40 and west of I-25. The atmosphere has sufficiently destabilized for the development of a few storms across the Southwest Mountains as well and there has even been a couple strikes in DeBaca County as well. Most areas will receive very little to no rainfall today, but a few pockets of wetting rainfall are likely across southwest and south-central NM. Gusty outflow winds could push northward into the Albuquerque metro area later today, but the threat of strong outflow wind gusts impacting outdoor activities this evening remains quite low. Higher moisture levels will keep temps seasonably warm again tonight, with lows similar, if not warmer, than this morning.
Shortwave ridging will amplify over New Mexico on Tuesday, increasing temperatures and bringing drier air in from the west. There may be just enough mid-level of moisture for a few gusty showers over the northern high terrain, but the mid-level ridging should help to keep convection quite shallow. A light southwest to south breeze will prevail around the region Tuesday afternoon, with partly cloudy skies.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026
A longwave trough will move into The Great Basin on Wednesday, with increasing southwest to west winds at the base of the trough as it swings through the Four Corners region. As a result, southwest to west winds will trend stronger through the day, likely peaking late afternoon in most areas. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be commonplace around all of central and northern NM, with the strongest winds focusing over far northern NM. While some patchy blowing dust could get kicked up, significant visibility reductions from blowing dust are unlikely. 700 mb winds intensify along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains Wednesday night into Thursday, likely keeping gusty winds going through the night in these areas. Gusty winds will focus over central and eastern NM on Thursday afternoon as a dry Pacific cold front sweeps across the region from west to east.
The subtropical jet will remain overhead on Friday, keeping the dry and windy conditions around. Wind speeds have notably trended higher on Friday and there are some indications winds could be stronger than Thursday in some areas. West winds shift around to the southwest over the weekend in response to a deepening trough over The West Coast. Both days will likely be at least breezy, with windy conditions in the typically windy areas such as the Central and Northeast Highlands. Winds have trended stronger during this period as well thanks to a slight northward shift and intensification of the subtropical jet. Low precipitation chances are still in the forecast for northern NM over the weekend into early next week. The stronger sub-tropical jet should help to provide some additional moisture and lift, increasing confidence for this light precipitation. Given this active pattern, low chances of precipitation will likely extend further south around the middle of next week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Showers and thunderstorms are struggling over south central New Mexico, mainly between KABQ, KONM, KSRR, and KSXU, and this activity will slowly fade away through the early evening hours. Abrupt gusty outflow winds to 40 kt, a few lightning strikes, and small hail, will accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into the evening with surface breezes settling to 5 to 15 kt overnight. Near or shortly after midnight, low clouds will enter southeastern New Mexico as moisture pushes in from the Gulf. These low stratus clouds will make a run toward a KROW-to-KCVN line with MVFR (below 3,000 ft) to IFR (at or below 1,000 ft) ceilings staying south and east of that line. These clouds will be slow to erode away and burn off through the late morning and early afternoon Tuesday. A few more high-based, weak showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the continental divide and central mountain chain of New Mexico Tuesday with just a 10-20% chance of development.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Gusty showers and a few storms will focus over southwestern NM today, with very isolated showers elsewhere. Rainfall amounts will generally be very light, with isolated pockets of wetting rainfall in the Southwest Mountains. The threat of fire starts from dry lightning remains low given that lightning activity will generally focus in the areas with higher humidities. A few gusty showers may develop again on Tuesday afternoon in the northern mountains. While a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, very modest instability will not support much lightning activity.
Drier conditions arrive Wednesday as southwest to west flow aloft increases out ahead of a Great Basin trough. This will create widespread critical fire weather conditions and a Fire Weather Watch was issued for almost the entire area as a result. Dewpoints will plummet in response to deep mixing with several hours of single digit RH forecast in west-central and eastern NM. While ERCs are only near to slightly above the 50th percentile in most of western and central NM, rapid drying of fine fuels is a concern. Critical fire weather conditions are likely again Thursday in central and eastern areas, with lower chances in the west.
Winds have trended stronger Friday through the weekend as well since the subtropical jet has trended stronger. Winds will be near Red Flag thresholds each day in at least eastern NM, but humidities will gradually trend higher thanks to a slight uptick in moisture. Low precipitation chances will favor northern NM over the weekend, but substantial precipitation remains unlikely.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Farmington...................... | 44 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Dulce........................... | 33 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 37 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Cuba............................ | 40 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Gallup.......................... | 35 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 5% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| El Morro........................ | 39 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Grants.......................... | 37 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Quemado......................... | 40 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 10% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| Magdalena....................... | 47 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 47 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Datil........................... | 41 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 30% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Reserve......................... | 37 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Glenwood........................ | 40 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 39 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Chama........................... | 34 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 36 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Los Alamos...................... | 47 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Pecos........................... | 40 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Cerro/Questa.................... | 38 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Red River....................... | 34 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 37 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Angel Fire...................... | 26 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 29 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 5% | 20% | 10% | 0% |
| Taos............................ | 34 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Mora............................ | 37 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 41 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Espanola........................ | 42 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Santa Fe........................ | 44 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Santa Fe Airport................ | 42 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Albuquerque Foothills........... | 51 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Albuquerque Heights............. | 49 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Albuquerque Valley.............. | 46 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Albuquerque West Mesa........... | 48 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Belen........................... | 44 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Bernalillo...................... | 47 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Bosque Farms.................... | 42 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Corrales........................ | 47 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Los Lunas....................... | 42 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Placitas........................ | 49 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 10% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Rio Rancho...................... | 49 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Socorro......................... | 50 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 50 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... | 46 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 10% | 5% | 10% | 0% |
| Tijeras......................... | 46 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Edgewood........................ | 42 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 20% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Moriarty/Estancia............... | 32 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 38 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 20% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Clines Corners.................. | 42 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 44 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Mountainair..................... | 44 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| Gran Quivira.................... | 43 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| Carrizozo....................... | 49 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Ruidoso......................... | 44 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Capulin......................... | 38 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 42 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Raton........................... | 36 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Springer........................ | 36 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 40 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Las Vegas....................... | 39 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 43 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Clayton......................... | 46 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Roy............................. | 41 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Conchas......................... | 46 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 10% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Santa Rosa...................... | 44 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Tucumcari....................... | 49 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 20% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
| Clovis.......................... | 48 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 20% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Portales........................ | 48 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 20% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Fort Sumner..................... | 48 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 20% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Roswell......................... | 50 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 10% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Picacho......................... | 45 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 49 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| Elk............................. | 42 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 46 ℉ | 78 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ101-104>106-120>126.
SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...52