Letterhead and timestamp
000 FXUS65 KABQ 112345 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 545 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 533 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026
- Hot temperatures today in the lower elevations of New Mexico (under 7000 feet) will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those without access to adequate cooling or hydration.
- Gusty north winds in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and east winds in the Rio Grande Valley tonight will create hazardous crosswinds on roadways.
- Thunderstorm chances trend higher on Friday, especially over central and eastern New Mexico. A few storms may become severe in eastern New Mexico Friday and Saturday afternoon.
UPDATE
Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Today's forecast high temperatures across eastern New Mexico have been dropped several degrees due to the backdoor cold front pushing in stronger and faster than expected.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Near to above average temperatures continue across much of the Land of Enchantment outside of far northeast NM, where a backdoor front has continued to push through during the morning and mid-afternoon. Heat remains the main story throughout the remainder of this afternoon, with the Heat Advisory in effect for the Chaves County Plains, including Roswell, until 8pm tonight. Moderate to locally major risk of heat-related impacts are likely for Roswell and the Rio Grande Valley, including Socorro, Albuquerque, and Santa Fe. While temperatures in the RGV will fall a few degrees short of Heat Advisory criteria (100F), it is still imperative to make sure to stay hydrated and to take breaks if outdoors today.
The backdoor front will continue to surge south/southeast throughout the afternoon, reaching the central mountain chain late this evening. A strong east canyon wind is then expected to develop between 10pm-12am tonight for Santa Fe, ABQ, and south towards Socorro and Carrizozo. The strongest gusts are favored to be upwards of 45mph immediately below canyon openings. Isolated gusts of 50mph or higher are possible, but are not expected to be widespread. Thus, while the east canyon wind is expected to persist through 6am-8am, a Wind Advisory does not appear necessary at this time.
As the front and the winds mellow out by tomorrow morning, continued upslope flow will allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain by 12pm Friday. From NAM and RAP forecast soundings, the lower levels appear too dry to constitute an immediate threat for heavy rainfall, so even with development expected over the burn scars near Ruidoso, a Flash Flood Watch is not likely to be issued. Soundings do show sufficient instability for initial storm updrafts to be supportive of small to isolated large hail (1,000-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE and wet bulb zero heights around 7,500-9,500ft). Due to the easterly upslope flow and brisk westerly winds aloft, bulk shear values around 20-30kts also support an isolated to scattered strong to severe storm risk. SPC has painted a Marginal (1/5) Risk of severe storms along and east of the central mountain chain for Friday, and our current thinking aligns with this risk. Additional storms look to form off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the Raton Pass area and move into northeast NM through the afternoon. As has been the case several times over the past week, a cluster of storms looks prone to develop in the early evening hours due to sufficient deep layer shear and potentially propagate to the southeast along it's cold pool/outflow boundary. This would be a better chance at strong to severe winds throughout the event, though this is a rather conditional threat as soundings show a potential inversion that storms would have to overcome without a true source of forcing.
A Marginal (1/4) Risk of excessive rainfall also exists in eastern NM Friday, and the current thinking is that any isolated flash flooding risk would be saved for areas with repeated rounds of storms or an efficient rainfall producer on burn scars. The forecast environment is not extremely conducive to training storms, but there is a low chance for several storms to move over one area.
Last, but not least, a few isolated, high-based showers and thunderstorms may develop near Mount Taylor during the afternoon, producing little rainfall and perhaps a few dry lightning strikes. This activity may produce an outflow boundary as well that pushes through the ABQ metro in the afternoon, though confidence is only moderate for this.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Saturday looks to be another stormy day across eastern NM, with the potential for drier storms across western NM. Looks to be a rather similar setup to Friday with remnant moisture and southerly return flow across eastern NM, alongside inverted-V soundings in western NM. For the eastern NM convection, bulk shear weakens a few knots, which looks to stifle sustained updrafts just a touch, though there are still likely to be a few strong, pulse-like storms. The lower levels appear to remain rather dry over the burn scars near Ruidoso, so while storms look favored to develop orographically, there looks to be only a low to moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding. Further in northeast NM, another backdoor front looks to surge into that area Saturday afternoon/evening. Depending on when the front makes its way into the state, that could aid the development of strong to severe storms in northeast NM as directional shear increases. Though, if the front is slower than currently modeled, then storms may lack the shear and lift to sufficiently become strong to severe. The backdoor front then pushes through the central mountain chain Saturday night, once again producing a gusty east canyon wind. Alongside the front pushing further south, the atmospheric column looks poised to moisten, allowing for continued stratiform rain showers and embedded thunderstorms through the night across eastern NM. Rainfall rates should not be very high given an expected stable yet moist atmosphere, though any areas that received good rainfall already may see minor, nuisance flooding.
As the overnight rain continues and upslope flow remains for Sunday morning, another day of rain is expected as we continue into the afternoon. Much of eastern NM looks to remain very stable, indicating stratiform rain with little to no thunder. On the other hand, the moisture that seeps through the central mountain chain after Saturday night's east canyon wind will interact with a more unstable environment near the Continental Divide. With inverted-V soundings in the forecast, a few strong microbursts may develop across western and central NM in any stronger thunderstorm. Along the central mountain chain, further shower and storm development looks likely. Without trying to sound like a broken record, Ruidoso is likely to see another round of rain. What may be a saving grace in terms of a flash flood risk is that the atmosphere looks to remain rather stable, limiting the rainfall rates for the area. Elsewhere, nuisance flooding may occur in areas that continue to see rainfall over the course of the next few days.
Going into the beginning of next week, northwest flow looks to entrench the area Monday and Tuesday. Monday looks to be the wetter day of the two, and northwest flow can work out to be a producer of strong to severe storms off of the central mountain chain. However, questions remain on whether the atmosphere can destabilize enough from early morning clouds. Tuesday appears drier at the moment, though continued northwest flow will allow for higher bulk shear, and any storm that can develop may become strong to severe. High pressure looks to build over the area during the middle of next week, allowing the heat to return to much of the forecast area.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026
A potent cold front has pushed south and west thru much of eastern NM this afternoon, currently advancing to areas just east of KSAF and K0E0 to just northeast of KROW this hour. This front is expected to surge thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing gusty east canyon winds to KSAF and KABQ this evening and overnight into Friday morning. An Airport Weather Warning has been issued for KABQ where gusts in excess of 35 knots are forecast. This front will washout to or just west of the Continental Divide Friday morning. The additional moisture that will follow in its wake will be fuel for afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring areas along the central mountain chain with drier showers capable of erratic gusty winds along and just west of the Rio Grande Valley. PROB30s have been included at KSAF-KABQ-KAEG-KROW to account for this afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Hot temperatures will continue for the next few days. A strong backdoor front will continue to push south and southeast this evening, before producing a strong east canyon wind through the central mountain chain tonight. Above average temperatures continue on Friday, with good chances for strong to isolated severe storms across eastern NM producing gusty winds and hail. Additionally, a few dry thunderstorms may develop along the Continental Divide. More thunderstorms are expected for Saturday, along with another backdoor front Saturday evening, acting very similar to the backdoor front today. Sunday looks to be the day of the most widespread rainfall across the state. Wetting rainfall has a slight to good chance of occurring across most of the area except for the areas around Gallup and Farmington. A few strong outflow winds may cause erratic gusts on Sunday as well. Northwest flow returns early next week, with storm chances in the east and breezy northwest winds in the west. The area around Farmington is currently favored for isolated critical fire weather conditions both Monday and Tuesday. Above average temperatures return during the middle of the week with the favored area of critical fire weather conditions spreading into the RGV and Central Highlands.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Farmington...................... | 54 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Dulce........................... | 42 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Cuba............................ | 52 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| Gallup.......................... | 49 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| El Morro........................ | 54 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Grants.......................... | 53 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Quemado......................... | 55 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| Magdalena....................... | 62 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 5% | 20% |
| Datil........................... | 58 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| Reserve......................... | 52 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20% |
| Glenwood........................ | 55 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Chama........................... | 43 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 48 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Los Alamos...................... | 59 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 10% | 20% |
| Pecos........................... | 52 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 10% | 0% |
| Cerro/Questa.................... | 50 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Red River....................... | 41 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% |
| Angel Fire...................... | 40 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 45 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 5% | 10% |
| Taos............................ | 49 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
| Mora............................ | 49 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Espanola........................ | 55 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Santa Fe........................ | 58 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Santa Fe Airport................ | 56 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Albuquerque Foothills........... | 66 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Albuquerque Heights............. | 63 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Albuquerque Valley.............. | 63 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 5% | 0% |
| Albuquerque West Mesa........... | 63 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Belen........................... | 61 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Bernalillo...................... | 63 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Bosque Farms.................... | 60 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Corrales........................ | 63 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Los Lunas....................... | 62 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Placitas........................ | 63 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Rio Rancho...................... | 63 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Socorro......................... | 68 ℉ | 100 ℉ | 69 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 10% |
| Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... | 58 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Tijeras......................... | 59 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Edgewood........................ | 56 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| Moriarty/Estancia............... | 54 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| Clines Corners.................. | 55 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| Mountainair..................... | 56 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 10% | 0% |
| Gran Quivira.................... | 57 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 20% | 0% |
| Carrizozo....................... | 65 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 0% | 30% | 10% | 5% |
| Ruidoso......................... | 60 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 0% | 60% | 10% | 30% |
| Capulin......................... | 46 ℉ | 82 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 5% | 10% |
| Raton........................... | 48 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 52 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 5% | 10% |
| Springer........................ | 50 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 5% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Las Vegas....................... | 53 ℉ | 84 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clayton......................... | 54 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Roy............................. | 53 ℉ | 83 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 0% | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Conchas......................... | 60 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 97 ℉ | 5% | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Santa Rosa...................... | 59 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tucumcari....................... | 62 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Clovis.......................... | 65 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Portales........................ | 65 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 98 ℉ | 5% | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Fort Sumner..................... | 64 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Roswell......................... | 70 ℉ | 96 ℉ | 67 ℉ | 99 ℉ | 0% | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Picacho......................... | 63 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 0% | 60% | 20% | 50% |
| Elk............................. | 61 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 0% | 70% | 30% | 60% |
ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...24