Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Widespread strong winds expected tomorrow, with cooler and breezy conditions to follow on Wednesday.

* Temperatures will return to near normal the remainder of the week with slight cooling possible over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

through next weekend.

Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday with dry and mild conditions hanging on for one more day. Southerly winds will begin to pick up in the Owens Valley and across the southern Great Basin today out ahead of the incoming weather system poised to impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will decrease and winds will pick up across the region on Tuesday as a deep cut-off low and associated 50 knot, 700 mb jet begins to push into the region. Widespread 40+ mph southerly-to- southwesterly wind gusts are expected across our forecast area on Tuesday with the potential for 50 to 60 mph wind gusts in Esmeralda and Central Nye Counties. Increased precipitation chances will also accompany this system with light rain showers expected across the southern Great Basin Tuesday into Wednesday. Light snow accumulations are expected above 8,000 feet in the Eastern Sierra Slopes, with 2 to 4 inches possible at Aspendell (elevation 8,400 feet). Breezes will linger across the Mojave Desert into northwestern Arizona on Wednesday, with showers exiting the region Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will bottom out in the wake of this system on Wednesday with afternoon high temperatures topping out 3 to 7 degrees below normal. Beyond Wednesday, temperatures will gradually climb back up to near normal as troughiness lingers across the Southwest. Beyond Friday, guidance begins to diverge as a weak trough off the coast of southern california may begin to influence the region, with some modest cooling possible.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package

Winds will remain generally southwest under 7 knots through the overnight period before becoming light and variable between 10Z and 17Z. After 17Z, southeast winds (130 to 150 degrees) are expected to develop, with occasional gusts to around 18 knots. However, guidance continues to indicate winds will shift to more of a southerly direction after 22Z with gusts increasing to 22 to 25 knots. Overall, confidence remains low-moderate in the overall timing and direction as winds may remain southeast or shift to the south earlier than expected. VFR conditions will prevail through Monday evening, with increasing mid-level and high clouds and bases remaining at or above 15kft AGL.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, following typical directional patterns with some variability overnight. Southeast to south winds will develop after 18Z Monday, with occasional gusts to around 20 knots through the early evening. The exception will be in the Owens Valley/KBIH, where gusty up-valley winds of 30 to 40 knots will develop during the afternoon. Winds will diminish after sunset Monday, although speeds will remain elevated (10 to 15 knots) in most areas through the evening. VFR conditions will prevail, with increasing mid-level and high clouds and bases remaining at or above 15kft AGL.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.