Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday.

- Thunderstorms are expected across the region Thursday afternoon and night. Strong downburst winds and hail will accompany the strongest storms.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist into the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday is expected to have the greatest storm coverage. Excessive rainfall will occur in areas experiencing multiple storms, with some seeing several inches of rain. Flash flooding potential will exist with the storms. The rain potential will aggravate the flood risk near area creeks and rivers.

SHORT TERM

(Through Thursday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Strong to severe storms along frontal boundary remain in central KS as CIN continues to increase across the local area this evening. Very little chance any of this will expand much father south and this continues to be supported by recent CAMs.

Frontal boundary will continue slow progression south Thursday with a hot and humid airmass residing over eastern OK and western AR. Temperatures should warm a couple of degrees within the corridor just ahead of the boundary near I-44 and a little south, potentially with HI values touching right around 105 given the anticipated dew points. Present heat advisory will be expanded into this area to account for this. Portions of the Arkansas River valley may also be close to advisory levels.

With weakening inhibition Thursday afternoon, front is expected to force a line of thunderstorms across northeast OK around 21z or slightly before. Instability will support strong updrafts with enough shear to support some organization, and a wind and hail threat with more organized cells. Corridor of near 2 inch PWATs will also support heavy rain threat.

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Rain and storms will continue southeast progression Thursday night into early Friday as the front advances, with waning severe threat during that time. The threat of heavy rainfall will persist overnight before an overall decrease Friday.

The front washes out Friday night into Saturday with a quick return of hot and humid conditions for Saturday. Current trends suggest potential for additional heat headlines Saturday will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms chances return Saturday evening with some potential for an organized storm complex to impact parts of the local area as it moves out of Kansas, with potential uptick in severe weather threat. This will also raise the heavy rainfall threat with a few locations potentially ending up with several inches of rainfall. A more substantial cold front will bring a couple of days of below normal temperatues early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

GOES 19 satellite imagery shows areas of low-level stratus across SE OK and NW AR, with more patchy stratus across NE OK. MVFR will likely prevail at KMLC, KFSM, KFYV, KXNA, and KROG through at least 15-16Z before lifting to VFR. Elsewhere, there is lower confidence on when/if stratus impacts the rest of the TAF sites. With that said, a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs may need to be added at KBVO, KTUL, and KRVS if the lower clouds fill in more.

A frontal boundary remains on track to move through the forecast area beginning mid- late afternoon. A narrow line (or broken line) of thunderstorms is forecast to form along the leading edge of the frontal boundary. The line of storms will become more diffused and less defined late tonight as the front slows down and eventually stalls. PROB30 groups for thunderstorms have been added to all TAFs, with timing in line with the latest hi-res model guidance. Ahead of the approaching front, southerly winds will remain gusty through the remainder of the morning and into this afternoon, with frequent gusts 20 to 30 knots before the front passes. Winds will weaken significantly and turn out of the north/northeast behind the front. Convection will linger overnight tonight, especially across SE OK and W. AR.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>067-354.

AR...None.