Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect from 1-8 PM today for portions of north-central Kansas due to low relative humidity and gusty winds.

- The next chance for showers and storms comes Thursday into Friday, including the potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Above-normal temperatures continue through Thursday before cooling down to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Another tranquil night across the region under northwest flow aloft. Mid-level ridging currently over the Intermountain West shifts east into the Plains today. Increasing south winds through the day will allow highs to reach the mid 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Winds gusting as high as 30 MPH along with low relative humidity will create Red Flag Conditions across portions of north central Kansas this afternoon. See the Fire Weather discussion below for more details.

Ridging holds through Wednesday, supporting dry conditions with above-normal temperatures before a potent closed upper low ejects across the Northern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. The best forcing with the aforementioned closed low will reside north of the forecast area, but a speed max rounding the base of the low and height falls through the day will generate some ascent. A dryline advances into central Kansas by Thursday afternoon with moderate instability and sufficient, although modest, shear in place ahead of this feature to support strong to severe storms. Model soundings suggest a capping inversion slowly erodes through the afternoon and may support a couple of storms during the afternoon. Higher chances for showers and storms come as a cold front moves through late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. With this event being four days out, there is still plenty of uncertain in timing of the upper low, placement of surface boundaries, storm mode and evolution, and most likely hazards. Stay tuned!

A cooler, more seasonable airmass moves in behind the boundary for Friday through the weekend. Several perturbations moving through the zonal flow keep at least low chances for precipitation in the forecast, but there will likely be periods of dry conditions as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail. East-southeasterly winds around 10kts overnight increase from the south-southwest Monday morning with some gusts around 20kts Monday afternoon. Gusts may drop off after sunset, but sustained winds will remain in the 10-15kt range.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Winds increase from the south through the day today; expect sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts of 25-30 MPH this afternoon. Given how low relative humidity values were yesterday, have trended dewpoints towards drier guidance which creates relative humidity values of 15- 20 percent across north- central Kansas this afternoon. A lack of green-up for areas along the Highway 81 corridor keeps fuels receptive to rapid fire spread and erratic fire behavior, so have issued a Red Flag Warning for this area from 1-8 PM today.

Increasing moisture Tuesday and Wednesday should keep relative humidity values above 30 percent and limit fire weather concerns, even with gusty south winds.

TOP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ034.