Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front sweeps across Kansas today. Gusty southerly winds will be expected ahead of the front with winds shifting out of the north/northwest behind the front.

- A few storms may develop along the front in the mid to late afternoon across far east-central and southeastern Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards with any storms that are able to develop.

- Pleasant Friday before rain and storm chances return by the weekend. Multiple rounds of rain falling over areas that have seen excessive rain over the past several days may lead to flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows remnants of yesterday evening's convection with more convection deepening along the nose of the LLJ across southern Nebraska. Further west, the main mid-level shortwave axis is noted over the Wyoming basin and beginning to eject off the central Rockies. The persistent vorticity advection has aided the deepening of a 991mb lee cyclone over southeast Colorado with tightening pressure gradients extending across Kansas. For the remainder of the morning, the surface low will be shunted east across Kansas and southeast Nebraska, deepening further as it does so. Very gusty conditions can be expected ahead of the surface cyclone with some areas flirting with wind advisory criteria. The frontal boundary quickly passes through much of eastern Kansas by noon today. By the later afternoon hours, low-level inhibition may erode enough to get a storm or two along the front in far east-central KS. Confidence in this occurring is currently low given the speed of the front and warm air aloft that parcels will need to compete with to become organized. If a storm can develop and strengthen, damaging winds and large hail would become a brief concern before storms race off towards Missouri. Behind the frontal boundary's passage, gusty north/northwest winds will become evident and help to usher in slightly cooler and drier air in from the north by Friday. Most areas this afternoon should top out in the mid to upper 80s with a few 90s possible across far east-central KS where those areas will reside in the warm sector of the cyclone into the afternoon hours.

Surface ridging builds in overnight Thursday and into Friday, providing a break from the heat and storms for a brief period. Expect Friday afternoon to be a fairly nice summer day with mostly sunny skies, light winds and afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The pattern quickly changes by Friday night in to Saturday morning as the 850mb ridge axis slides east of Kansas and returns low-level flow back from the south. With quasi-zonal flow aloft providing persistent PVA beginning Friday night into Saturday morning, rain and storm chances will become likely for much of the day. The first wave of heavy rain and thunderstorms comes within a broad area of isentropic ascent associated with the morning LLJ Saturday morning into midday. By the afternoon, troughing approaching from the northern Rockies will help to sag a frontal boundary across east-central and southeastern KS. A few stronger to marginally severe storms may be possible along the boundary by the afternoon Saturday, generally across east-central KS, but it seems that heavy rainfall will be the main focus for most areas. With low- level convergence/confluence along the surface and low-level boundaries, ample theta-e advection overriding the boundary and support aloft, a heavy rain and flooding concerns may become realized. Efficient rainfall rates across east-central and southeast KS will be expected given PWATs ranging from 1.5-2" through the day Saturday. Ensemble guidance is beginning to become more confident in this region seeing heavy rainfall Saturday with the NBM probabilities of greater than 2 inches at 50-60% for areas south and east of the turnpike and greater than 3 inches between 30-40%. The LREF is slightly less optimistic in higher rainfall totals given the lower resolution in ensemble members, but does give areas east of Topeka a 70-80% chance of seeing rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch (40-70% for areas from MHK to TOP).

Heavy rain comes to an end as we head into Sunday as mid-level subsidence and surface riding slide in from the northwest. Sunday will see some of the coolest temperatures of the week as highs top out in the mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Low-end chances for precipitation can be expected through early next week as several weak waves advect over the central Plains. Additionally, increasing mid-level heights should slowly warm temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s through the week so do not expect the below-average temperatures Sunday and Monday to continue!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Will maintain VCSH at TOP/FOE as light returns are noted on radar just ahead of the cold front. Winds shift to the NW early this period with fropa and remain gusty until they diminish around sunset. Light and variable winds can then be expected most of the night into Friday morning with high pressure building in.

TOP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.