Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 709 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Above normal temps with heat indices reaching 100+ degrees in the afternoons continue through the week. - Increasing shower and storm chances expected through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 709 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026 VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms. All terminals will be in the vicinity of storms this afternoon and have kept TEMPO groups to account for the highest chances at each site. Some convection will linger a few hours past 00Z, then a quiet overnight is expected.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Just another beautiful morning across the peninsula. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control across the state keeping very light southeasterly flow today. PWAT values stay around 2 in., which combined with daytime heating and the lift sponsored by the afternoon sea breeze will support showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Showers over the water will move onshore behind the sea breeze with areas along the I-75 corridor having the highest chances for convection. High temperatures once again will peak in the low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s.

The ridge axis begins to shift south on Friday. This will keep flow very light and support convection becoming widespread as the west/east sea breezes collide over the interior and move east.

LONG TERM (SAT-WED)

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

During the weekend and into next week, the area of high pressure continues to move south allowing west to southwest winds to settle in. This will also keep above normal temperature in place with highs in the 90s through the period. This pattern keeps moisture high with a few showers and storms possible near the coast early but becoming widespread over the interior as the sea breezes collide. Overnight lows will also be very warm in the mid to upper 70s with coastal areas remaining around 80 degrees.

Model guidance bring a disturbance towards the end of the period that could potentially bring additional upper level support to the area. We shall see if this materializes.

MARINE

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Area of high pressure continues to dominate weather conditions over the waters. Winds remains fairly light 5-10 knots through the the period. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today inland but will push back towards the coast later in the evening. Going into the weekend, some of the activity could develop early over the waters and push inland through the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure remains in control through the period. Minimum humidity values will be well above critical levels. Winds become light and gradually become west to southwest into early next week. Increasing moisture and light winds will keep any fire weather concerns out of fire districts during this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.