Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue throughout the day today and into early Tuesday morning.

- Considerably warmer temperatures are expected in the mid-to- late part of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through tonight) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Rain showers will continue to develop across our southwestern counties and spread northeastward today, bringing widespread rainfall to West Central Texas today and into early Tuesday morning. There remains some potential for a few embedded thunderstorms to develop, but little to no potential for any of these storms to become severe. Rain totals appear to be in the 0.25" to 1.00" range for most locations south of the I-20 corridor. Isolated rainfall amounts nearing 1" to 1.5" are possible, especially where we see storms training along an area. With these rain showers and amble cloud cover in place across the area, high temperatures today will struggle to surpass the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows tonight will only fall a few more degrees into the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The upper-level wave that is resulting in widespread rain on Monday should continue moving eastward across Texas on Tuesday. Downward motion aloft should take over behind the trough and as a result, rain chances should gradually come to an end during the day. If cloud cover lingers, however, this may prevent temperatures from climbing out of the 60s. For areas that see more sunshine, highs could reach the lower 70s.

Looking toward the second half of the upcoming week, the upper-level flow pattern looks to shift again. A broad upper-level low will move into the western US on Wednesday then into the northern Plains on Thursday. This would place the southern Plains in southwest flow aloft. Models show several waves embedded in the flow rotating around the base of this trough Thursday through Sunday. This would push a series of systems through the southern Plains Thursday through Sunday. These systems would interact with warm, moist southerly flow at the surface and could generate chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. For now, models are differing on where to place key surface features, such as surface fronts and drylines, which would be the main focus for thunderstorms. Given the low confidence due to model differences, precipitation chances were kept low until better agreement occurs.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions will quickly fall into MVFR ro IFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms tracking across all terminals by early this morning and persisting through Tuesday morning. Winds will generally remain light and variable, with the exception of any infrequent gusts produced by any outflow boundarys from decaying thunderstorms. Visibilities will be reduced in the rain, and could have intermittent fog/mist when showers are not occurring. While isolated thunderstorms are possible, low confidence in placement precludes a mention in our TAFs at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SJT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.