Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Enhanced fire danger conditions are likely for Wednesday. Temperatures and dewpoints were tweaked to account for the dry air in place.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming trend will occur for the rest of this week, and it should stay mainly dry until a cold front arrives this weekend to bring the next notable chance of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend will occur for the rest of this week, and it should stay mainly dry until a cold front arrives this weekend to bring the next widespread chance of rain.

By Wednesday, a broad upper level ridge will build eastward over the Appalachian Mountains. This pattern should result in a warming trend taking place for the remainder of this week. Temperatures will jump back into the 70s and 80s each afternoon for Wednesday through Friday. Meanwhile, opportunities for rainfall will remain scant through this workweek with only a couple frontal boundaries passing to the north. One of these boundaries should cross central Virginia on Wednesday afternoon that may offer a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, but the lingering dry air mass will likely keep the moisture along and north of Route 460. South of Route 460, the ongoing drought will combine with winds gusting up to 30 mph across portions of North Carolina and Virginia on Wednesday to increase the risk of fire danger. The next notable chance of rain to provide any relief from the ongoing drought may not come until this weekend when a cold front approaches from the west. The models hint at more chances of rain during early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR flight conditions are forecasted for all terminals through the 22/18Z TAF period. Light SSW winds will gust to 12 to 20 kts this afternoon and evening before calming after dark. Winds will be light the first half of the overnight, then increase again in the early morning hours tomorrow as a warm front moves through, becoming more westerly and gusting to 20 to 25 knots through the day.

Overnight an increasing LLJ will mean localized LLWS for the mountain terminals, or all but LYH and DAN, with 2 kft winds around 40 knots and light to calm winds at the surface.

Should see some increase in mid and high cloud overnight and into tomorrow, with perhaps a -SHRA developing at LWB for mid morning on tomorrow.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Anticipate isolated showers and thunderstorms by later Wednesday afternoon as a cold front enters northern Virginia. The best chance of impacts will be at LWB, with lowering ceilings, possibly bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Tranquil and mainly VFR conditions will then return for Thursday into Friday afternoon, when another cold front will enter the Mid- Atlantic region. This will bring the potential for sub-VFR ceilings and scattered rounds of shower activity with localized embedded thunderstorms. Saturday has a high chance for scattered showers and storms as well as sub-VFR conditions. Should be some improvement on Sunday, but showers may linger.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions will continue for the remainder of today, but wind gusts should stay around 15 to 20 mph. Those wind gusts should increase to 30 mph by Wednesday as a frontal boundary passes to the north. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 25 percent across North Carolina, and any rain chances from the aforementioned frontal boundary should stay along and north of Route 460. Therefore, enhanced fire danger is likely for North Carolina on Wednesday, and a statement will be issued accordingly. A statement may also need to be considered for parts of Virginia, but there will be a cutoff somewhere along and north of Route 460 where the relative humidity may fail to drop below 40 percent due to passing clouds and the chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Afterward, above normal temperatures and dry conditions should continue for the rest of this week, and the next chance of widespread wetting rainfall may not come until this weekend or into early next week.

RNK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.