Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update.

No significant changes to the previous forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding are possible this afternoon.

3. Drier weather returns for Saturday before another frontal boundary brings rain chances back to the area on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... With a cold frontal boundary sweeping through the area today this feature will reinvigorate thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential will mainly be east of the Ohio River today with possible severe storms promoting damaging winds gusts and localized heavy downpours. We also cannot rule out hail as another threat, but there is low potential at this time.

With dew points in the low 70s, plenty of moisture and instability will drive thunderstorm potential today, however with the lack of modest shear, although with high DCAPE values and water loaded soundings with PWATS 1.5 inches and above, quick downbursts of damaging wind and heavy downpours will be the main threats. The environment is supportive of scattered thunderstorm development mainly along the higher terrain and along the mountains by this mid afternoon as the front exits toward the east as peak heating goes into effect.

Convective allowing models have some activity igniting this late morning across the western flank of our CWA and then by this mid to late afternoon across the eastern half of West Virginia and down to southwest Virignia. The HRRR is most active with embedded thunderstorms tracking across the CWA along I64 corridor through the afternoon. By late afternoon, activity should wind down as the front exits the mountains.

One caveat is that Instability may be limited due to cloud coverage by the frontal boundary this afternoon so severe weather may just become more isolated in nature than scattered. This does not mean that there will not be severe thunderstorms as SPC still has us in a slight risk east of the Ohio River for the afternoon.

Some localized flooding could come to fruition under repeated thunderstorms over the same areas or if rain rates exceed 2 inches per hour, especially across low lying and flood prone or poor drainage areas. WPC has us in a marginal for excessive rainfall which justifies the high PWATs and heavy thunderstorm potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Another cold front will sweep through the area on Sunday providing the potential for more thunderstorm activity. This front should progressively move through out area, however with high PWAT values and very moist soundings the possibility of isolated hydro issue could occur under heavy thunderstorm activity.

By Monday, zonal flow kicks into high gear and keeps the area somewhat settled into through midweek with temperatures falling down to below seasonable into midweek.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

With surface flow increasing fog should not be a factor this morning. VFR will prevail until a frontal boundary pushes in some lower clouds from the west to east this afternoon. MVFR CIGs/VIS could become prevalent at times amid thunderstorm potential east of the Ohio River this afternoon and along the mountains. By this evening, things will settle down and the clouds will clear out fairly well for the overnight where valley fog will become a possibility across the area and possibly promote VIS restrictions through the morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorm activity could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 06/12/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Brief periods of IFR visibility possible in thunderstorms Sunday. IFR conditions in fog is possible early Saturday and Monday mornings, as high pressure builds in behind cold fronts that cross this evening and Sunday.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.