Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

This forecast package remains in good continuity with the prior package, no worthwhile changes to mention here.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Slightly elevated fire danger continues today with dry weather and low relative humidity. Winds are not quite as gusty as yesterday, which helps somewhat limit the overall threat.

2) There are multiple chances of rain throughout the week. The first chance is Wednesday with a small disturbance, and the second chance is this weekend ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Slightly elevated fire danger continues this afternoon with dry weather and low relative humidity values from the middle 20s to the middle 30s. With a relaxed surface pressure gradient field and high pressure overhead, today's winds are not as gusty as yesterday. This helps mitigate the fire threat somewhat.

Relative humidity values will increase Wednesday ahead of a disturbance, which will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area. This should decrease the fire threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There are multiple chances of rain throughout the upcoming week. A 500-mb shortwave will track across the area Wednesday, bringing scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Models are mostly showing weak instability across the area (around 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but some mesoscale models show a little more instability developing across southeast Ohio and northern WV (up to 800 J/kg MLCAPE Wed PM). 0-6 km bulk shear is mostly on the weak side (generally 20-25 kts). Therefore, we mostly expect showers and non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday.

Saturday into Sunday will bring a more widespread chance of rain across the area ahead of a cold front. Severe weather is not anticipated with this due to a lack of instability. Early indications suggest anywhere from 0.50-1.00 inch of rainfall is possible throughout the weekend, which would be helpful for our current drought situation.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will continue the rest of today and tonight. By 12-14Z Wednesday, MVFR clouds will move into the area along with chances of showers.

LLWS is expected overnight as a low-level jet passes overhead. Expect 40 kts of LLWS from 05Z through 14Z Wednesday.

Light winds today out of the southwest. Winds becoming breezier by the late morning or early afternoon Wednesday at 6-12 kts, occasionally gusting to 20 kts at KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR anticipated.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.