Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Passing system brings cooler, around seasonal temperatures today across eastern Colorado.

- Critical and near critical fire weather conditions continue today. - Warmer Friday, with continued critical and near critical fire weather conditions.

- Trending cooler on Saturday, with cool and more unsettled weather continuing into early next week.

- Warmer and drier for the middle to end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate to strong westerly flow aloft across the region, as a potent short wave is translating across the Northern Rockies at this time. Regional observations has the systems cold front pushing into northeastern Colorado as of midnight, with very mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the southeast plains and still in the 50s across the higher terrain at this time.

Not much change in the forecast through tonight, as westerly flow aloft moderates behind the passing wave. Model data continues to indicate very dry air in place across the region, with only spotty critical fire weather conditions across much of south central Colorado, with weakening westerly winds through the day. Further east, gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph develop across the plains behind the passing front, which looks to push south across the Palmer Divide between 7Z-9Z and then continue across the rest of the plains through day break. Northerly gradient flow does relax some through mid morning before winds become breezy easterly through the late morning and afternoon. Despite cooler temperatures around seasonal levels, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s expected across the plains, dry air behind the front will combine with the breezy conditions for more critical fire weather conditions across portions of the plains once again, with current Red Flag Warnings remain in place. Further west, temperatures will remain near yesterdays readings in the 60s, 70s and 80s once again. Latest guidance does indicate enough moisture, combined with upslope flow, to develop some cumulus across the southern Sangres this afternoon, with mainly clear skies across the rest of the region. Winds relax through the evening, with dry air and clear skies leading to cool overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday will feature at and above seasonal temperatures once again, with increasing westerly flow ahead of more short wave energy digging across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies Friday night. Dry conditions remain in place across the western half of the area, leading to more critical fire weather conditions over and near the higher terrain, where a Fire Weather Watch remains in tact for late Friday morning into the evening. There remains a slow increase in available moisture across the plains on Friday, with enough potential instability for a few possible afternoon showers and storms across the southeast mtns, the southern I-25 Corridor and into the far southeast plains.

Latest model data is trending cooler for Saturday, with a northerly surge behind Friday's passing system, bringing chances of showers and storms across Eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon and evening. Model data continues to bring a stronger system across the Rockies Sunday, with below seasonal temperatures and good chances of showers and storms, especially over and near the higher terrain, lasting into early next week, before upper level ridging builds across the Rockies, bringing warm and drier weather back to region for the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 531 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Gusty n-ne winds at KPUB and KCOS this morning will diminish and shift to the se toward 18z, with se winds then continuing through the afternoon and evening. At KALS, light winds this morning will shift to the w-sw this afternoon, with gusts to 25 kts until around 02z. Winds then diminish this evening and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Poor RH recovery continues overnight, with a passing cold front across the plains developing gusty northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph in its wake early Thursday morning. Despite cooler air, with highs around seasonal levels, the breezy and dry conditions will keep critical fire weather conditions in place across portions of southeast Colorado, with more spotty critical fire weather conditions expected across western portions of the district.

Warm and breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday will once again develop meteorological critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central and southeast Colorado, especially over and near the higher terrain, with slowly increasing available moisture bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Cooler and more unsettled weather remains in the offing for Sunday into early next week. Upper level ridging builds back across the region for the middle and end of next week.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for COZ220-222>224. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-228>230. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for COZ229-230. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ231-234>236.