Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight through Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain and snow showers early this morning

2) Continued cold temperatures through Tuesday morning

2) Warmer with periodic shower chances mid to late week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A crossing shortwave trough continues to maintain scattered rain and snow showers across the region. Visibility has been reduced at times especially north of PIT where the precipitation has changed to mainly snow with a cooling boundary layer and 850mb temperatures down to -6 deg C. Road temperatures remain in the mid 30s to near 40 so no impacts to travel are expected, though some minor accumulation is possible in grassy areas. The rain and snow showers should end this morning as the shortwave trough exits, and high pressure begins to build in.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Frost and freeze headlines remain in effect this morning. Freezing temperatures are still expected by morning in the warning area, though clouds and precip will likely limit frost formation elsewhere. Some clearing toward morning is possible, with some localized frost possible in the advisory area.

A more widespread freeze is expected tonight into Tuesday morning as high pressure builds in, resulting in diminishing wind and radiational cooling. With high confidence in low temperatures below freezing tonight into Tuesday morning, upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning. This should be the last of the cold air this week as the high moves east Tuesday, with warm advection and a southerly flow on the western side of the high.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A weak cold front is expected to move south across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, though instability is progged to be limited, and highest west of the area. Ridging should return dry and warmer weather for Thursday into early Friday. The ridge is expected to flatten by late week into the weekend, with a more zonal flow across much of the CONUS, and a closed low across south central Canada. Weak shortwaves embedded in the flow are expected to cross the Upper Ohio Valley region later Friday into the weekend. Occasional shower chances are expected, with dry time in between shortwaves. Thunder potential appears to remain low, with ensembles indicating minimal instability.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rain and snow showers have moved off to the southeast, with the only potential impacts at MGW briefly before departing by 13Z. Precipitation chances are null through the rest of the TAF period.

Winds are expected to gust up to 20 knots by the afternoon. Winds are expected to engage by 15Z to 17Z. The outlier will be ZZV with lighter winds aloft expected and in turn, less winds to mix to the surface. VFR and calming winds persist overnight, with limited impacts to terminals.

Outlook... Restrictions and shower potential returns with a cold front Wednesday morning, before VFR returns Thursday under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009- 013>016-020-022-074-076>078. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ021-029-031- 073-075. OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041- 048>050-057-058. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ059-068-069. WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001-510>514. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ002>004-012- 021-509.