Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma today into this week.

- Low rain chances Monday night into Tuesday across southern OK and western north TX. Amounts likely light.

- Storm chances and potential for severe weather return by Thursday for at least portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Through Monday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Another beautiful day is in store across the area as southerly winds become breezy by the afternoon. Cloud cover will increase through the day from south to north and will keep afternoon highs in the 70s. There will be a southwesterly component to the wind Monday, so may get RH values in the teens across northwestern Oklahoma. A low end threat for spreading fires is possible across these areas, so a Grassland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon. A weak wave will move across the southern Plains, providing enough lift for a few showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon across far southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Aforementioned showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift towards the east Monday night into Tuesday. Cloud cover will remain at least across the southern two-thirds of the area Tuesday. In turn, afternoon highs will be much cooler across areas that are cloudy through the day. Highs are likely to not get out of the 60s for most locations, but will get into the 70s across northern Oklahoma where skies are expected to be generally clear.

Once again, cloud cover will stick around across the eastern third of the area, providing another cooler day on Wednesday for these locations. Further to the west, highs will get up into the low 80s. Although RH values aren't expected to be too low on Wednesday, there will be at least spotty elevated fire weather conditions across far northwestern Oklahoma.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A dryline is expected to mix just east of the 100th meridian Thursday, with severe weather possible to the east and near critical fire weather concerns to the west of the boundary. A mid- level trough will move across the Plains Thursday afternoon, while a sub tropical jet will move across the Red River and vicinity. Medium range guidance suggests that there may be low- level inhibition across much of the area, which may limit surface based storms. We are still several days out from the exact details, however, instability and shear will be in place for severe weather.

A cold front will move through late Thursday into Friday, bringing afternoon highs through the weekend back into the 70s and low 80s. Isolated elevated fire weather conditions are possible through the weekend across western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Perturbations within the zonal flow aloft will provide the necessary lift for at least low chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area through Sunday.

Bunker

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Generally light and southerly winds will continue overnight, though northwest Oklahoma may continue to hold onto some gustiness. Breezy winds will return during the day tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail with high clouds moving in from the southwest tomorrow.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.