Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms likely overnight (60-80% chance), moving through around 3 to 7 AM. Threats include very large hail, damaging winds, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall.

- Shower and storm chances return Saturday (40-60% chance) with another chance for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Cooler weather expected Sunday into early next week, with temperatures trending back up Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 924 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

We have two boundaries across our area this evening. The main one is just clipping far southeast Nebraska up through Page County, IA bringing storms into Richardson County. The second is more of a truer cold front with a wind shift to northwesterly and much drier air to the north of it. This front stretches from Beatrice northeast to around Red Oak, IA. We had a few storms pop up along that second boundary earlier, but with diurnal heating shutting off, we've even lost the clouds that were along that boundary earlier.

Attention turns to storms overnight. Right now the upper-level pattern shows broad troughing over the Northern High Plains. Guidance has a decently strong shortwave trough pushing into Nebraska early Thursday, providing upper-level dynamic support for amplification of the low-level jet, and forcing for storm development starting around 1-2AM over Central Nebraska. As the LLJ strengthens overnight, we'll see the stronger surface frontal boundary start to advance northward into southeast Nebraska. Isentropic upglide to the north of the surface front will lead to destabilization above the boundary layer. This instability combined with 40-55kts of 1-3km Bulk Shear along the nose of the LLJ will lead to the organization of a strong MCS that will track across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. While CAMs continue to waffle on the exact path of this convective complex, it generally looks to impact somewhere around I-80, either aiming directly towards Lincoln or Omaha continuing east into Iowa.

This complex will likely start as a cluster of strong individual cells over Central Nebraska, starting to merge together as they enter Butler, Seward, and Saline counties. These initial storm clusters will have a high risk of large hail, up to 2.5 inches. As they continue east, we'll see cold-pool development as the storm clusters start to organize themselves in the high-shear environment. It will start with a couple strong downbursts, which then will lead to the transition into more of more of a wind-driven MCS with gust potential up likely up to 70-80 mph. Couldn't rule out gusts up to 100 mph. The next uncertainty lies in where exactly this transition occurs and just how strong the winds will get. I expect the transition will likely occur somewhere around Lancaster+Saunders counties east into Omaha, with a wind-driven hail threat through the transition. Areas east of the transition will see more of just a damaging wind threat.

Severe storms should clear the area into central Iowa by around 7AM, with the precip shield keeping light stratiform showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder into mid-morning. Once showers clear, attention turns to the forecast for the rest of Thursday. The good news is that it is going to be much cooler. Strong northwesterly flow on the back-side of the upper-level trough will mix down, leading to gusty northwesterly winds developing late morning and lingering through the afternoon. Expect frequent gusts 30 to 40 mph. These winds will be advecting in cooler, drier air which will keep temperatures very pleasant. Highs on Thursday will only get into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Going into Friday we see zonal flow setting up across the CONUS at 250mb, with a mid-level ridge shifting across the region at 500mb. On Friday we see the return of southerly flow on the back-side of this ridge coinciding with a weak Low developing and moving into central South Dakota. With the return of southerly flow we'll see temperatures warming back into the mid 80s to low 90s Friday afternoon, though humidity remains low with dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We'll see moisture arrive with the nocturnal amplification of the LLJ into eastern Nebraska Friday night into early Saturday with increasing clouds, and potential for nocturnal storms overnight into early Saturday.

Models have been trending farther south with nocturnal storm development and the lingering stationary front into the day on Saturday. This boundary will be the focus for strong-to-severe storm development possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Wherever this sets up, expect a low pressure system to develop somewhere around southwestern Kansas and ride up along this stationary boundary, amplifying low-level shear in an environment with ample moisture and instability along and south of the front. The Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting this potential since Day 5, which shows fairly good confidence in this potential, so highlight Saturday afternoon-evening as a period we should watch for more severe storms.

Beyond Saturday, cooler weather settles in for Sunday into early next week as we see the return of northwesterly flow over the northern and central Plains. We could still see a few chances for showers and storms as shortwaves ride down the back-side of the broad upper-level trough, but moisture will be more limited with these showers likely not leading to any significant, meaningful rainfall.

Temperatures trend back up toward Wednesday next week as ridging out west starts to expand eastward, leading to the return of southerly flow and moisture advection back into our region. I wouldn't expect any additional chances for severe weather beyond Saturday until at least Wednesday or later in the week next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

KOFK: The first round of storms has moved through the terminal, leaving us with a lull in rain chances for a few hours. Models continue to show the possibility of a second line of showers/storms moving through the area between 15Z-17Z. Rain and a brief period of gusty winds and a wind shift would be the main things to watch out for. MVFR conditions improve to VFR by 17Z as the system moves out of the region. Northwest winds prevail around 15-20kts after 21Z, decreasing to 5-10kts by 02Z.

KOMA: A few lines of storms continue to move west to east across eastern Nebraska. Expect these storms to continue to move through the vicinity of the terminal through shortly after 12Z. Models continue to show a possible secondary line of storms moving through between 14Z and 16Z. Expect gusty winds, a possible wind shift to the west, and potentially heavy rainfall with these storms. Expect ceilings to improve to VFR by 17Z as the system moves out of the region. Winds will become northwesterly around 15-20kts by 16Z, decreasing to around 5-10kts by 01Z.

KLNK: Thunderstorms continue to move across southeastern Nebraska early this morning. A brief lull in storms is expected between 12Z and 13Z. Models are showing a few storms developing over or near the terminal between 13Z and 15Z. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall would be the main concerns with any additional storms moving through the area. Ceilings begin to improve around 15Z-16Z, returning to VFR conditions. Northwest winds around 15-20kts are expected after 16Z, decreasing to 5-10kts by 01Z.

OAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.