Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated fire danger continues through early this evening mainly in Southwest North Carolina where fuels are still dry and winds are slightly stronger.

- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure is currently centered over the Great Lakes. With good mixing expected this afternoon due to clearing clouds, relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent range for most of the region. Elevated fire danger this afternoon and evening will be mainly in Southwest North Carolina and maybe the East Tennessee mountains where fuels are still dry and winds are slightly stronger.

Dry weather will continue through Friday. One possible exception is a very low chance for a light shower in Southwest Virginia on Wednesday afternoon as a system moves to our north. Patchy frost is possible in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia late tonight into Tuesday morning with clear, calm conditions expected with cooler temperatures.

Otherwise, warm and sunny until the next system approaches the region on Friday with the best chance of rain Friday night into Saturday. A weak ridge will be over the Southeast this weekend. A series of weak impulses moving through the pattern could bring showers and storms off and on into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Westerly winds will continue to gust around 20 knots at times this afternoon. Some clouds are lingering mainly near TRI. Clouds will clear out overnight into tomorrow. Winds will be lighter tomorrow and more southwesterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MRX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.