Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of strong to severe storms late this afternoon and evening in the south and east as well as flooding.

- Cooler and generally more pleasant weather in store this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The U.P. and area around it is drying out early this morning as the previous disturbance that moved through this past evening continues eastwards out of our area. While drier conditions are being seen this morning and sunny skies look to mostly return by the mid- morning hours, expect cloud cover to return by the afternoon hours as a cold front pushing in from the west later today will have a shortwave low riding along it into the Upper Great Lakes this evening. While this setup should is looking to bring for some fairly stratiform-looking rainfall, there could be a stronger storm or two seen near Menominee and along the Lake Michigan shoreline this evening. In addition, while PWATs are looking to be no where near as impressive as they were this past evening, with multiple global and CAMs guidance showing some embedded convection potentially dumping over an inch or two of rainfall in some spots, some isolated flooding/low-level flash flooding could be seen over the central and east this evening; this is reflected in the Marginal Risk WPC has generally put us under for today through tonight (a.k.a. at least a 5% chance for excessive rainfall leading to flooding impacts like ponding of water, etc.).

Behind the rainfall this evening, expect cooler and somewhat drier conditions for Friday, this weekend, and next week as an upper-level low over the Hudson Bay region keeps our area downstream of continental Canadian air and a synoptic troughing pattern. Come Friday, a shortwave rotating into the region could kick-off some diurnal showers and potentially a couple of thunderstorms over the interior areas by the afternoon hours. On Saturday, as a second cold front pushes into the region, another shortwave low may ride along the front and bring more rainfall to at least portions of Upper Michigan. While on-and-off rain chances do look to continue for the rest of the period thanks to shortwave lows rotating through the region via the synoptic-scale troughing setup, the cooler and drier air will bring below normal to near normal temperatures (i.e. highs in the 60s and 70s) to the area and dewpoints down into the 40s and 30s (potentially even into the 20s in a couple of spots for the driest days) for much of the rest of the period. While fire weather concerns look to be fairly muted due to the cooler temperatures and continued shortwave action, will continue to monitor the RHs throughout this weekend into next week as we could see min RHs drop below 30% on some days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR prevails through the afternoon, with just some stray showers reaching the IWD area so far as midlevel clouds spread in. A more widespread batch of rain showers and possibly some embedded thunder return closer to 00Z, which brings a gradual deterioration to MVFR and then IFR at all terminals. Some LIFR conditions could be seen in the heaviest showers and storms, with the best chance of this happening over CMX and SAW (20% over SAW and 40% over CMX). In addition, some LLWS could be seen for a couple of hours this evening as the cold front rolls through tonight; this remains most likely at SAW. As the front pushes out and drier, cooler air is able to move into the area late tonight, expect conditions to gradually improve; VFR conditions look to return to the terminals Friday morning as winds blow from the southwest/west.

MARINE

Issued at 154 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

As showers and thunderstorms ramp down early this morning, winds are turning to the southwest by the mid-morning hours up to 25 knots as marine fog continues until it starts to dissipate later today via a cold front coming in from the west. However, as a shortwave low rides the cold front into the Upper Great Lakes this evening, we may see a thunderstorm or two return to the eastern lake as winds pick up from the west behind it; expect westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots across the lake late tonight, increasing up to around 30 knots around the Keweenaw by Friday afternoon as a second, weaker shortwave low rotates into the region.

While winds do look to weaken to around 20 knots from the southwest Friday evening, they do look to slowly pick up once again Saturday morning ahead of an incoming cold front and shortwave low riding along said front. West winds of 20 to potentially 30 knots return over the western 2/3rds of the lake by Saturday afternoon before very weak ridging moving in brings light winds of 20 knots or less back across the area Saturday night. However, with a secondary cold front moving back across Lake Superior on Sunday, expect winds to once again increase to 20 to 30 knots from the west by Sunday afternoon.

Moving into early next week, expect the winds to be a little calmer as more ridging tries to move eastwards into the area. However, with low pressure around the Hudson Bay area keeping a generally large- scale troughing pattern overhead through this next week, we may see more times where winds pick up in response to shortwave lows moving through the region.

MQT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None.