Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain showers expected today.

- A break from the heat & humidity over the next 7 days. Below normal temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Much cooler & drier airmass will settle into the Upper Midwest today and is forecast to stick around well into next week. Today's forecast will be cooler with widespread rain showers across much of the forecast area. A quick moving sfc low will trek along the sfc cold frontal boundary that stretches from Iowa through Wisconsin into northern Michigan. That will place us on the cold side of the sfc low meaning we'll end up in the deformation region. This means we'll see light to moderate rain showers with most locations receiving precipitation at some point today. Rain will begin by mid- morning and wrap up mid-late afternoon. QPF amounts will vary with lighter amounts across western and central Minnesota - up to a quarter inch. Higher amounts over southern and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin - up to half an inch. Temperatures only warm into the mid 70s with cloud cover around much of the day. Behind this system, we'll see a transition to a much cooler and drier weather.

Aloft, the pattern shift will be driven by persistent troughing over the Hudson Bay in Canada and ridging over the West Coast. The ridge will slowly retrograde from the western US to the Gulf of Alaska region by the end of the period. This would be an ideal winter weather pattern for cold and snow if it was January, but in Summer it's going to usher in a rather pleasant stretch. Ensemble guidance continues to paint temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal through the middle of next week. That'll translate into high temperatures in the 70s and low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. This will be a nice break from the tropical-like airmass that has been in place the last week or so. If we look ahead to the end of the month guidance is hinting at the development of the monsoonal ridge over the SW CONUS. This should open the door to a warmer, more humid pattern for the last week of June.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR rain showers across much of the area this afternoon. These will continue to move SW to NE across the area through the the evening. This rain shower activity may lead to MVFR conditions due to lowering CIGs and VIS between 4-6SM through the mid/late afternoon hours. An isolated lightning strike or two is possible, but chances are low enough to omit from TAFs. Rain will end by the evening with winds at or below 10kts and VRB through 14-15Z. Winds will pick up and become westerly late morning Friday, with isolated gusts to 20+ kts.

KMSP...Rain showers expected through 22Z, but rainfall rates shouldn't be heavy enough to categorically reduce visibility. CIGs could fall near high-end MVFR over the next few hours, but generally will remain at VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind NW at 12-17 kts.

MPX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.