Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Strong marine winds over the Gulf will create hazardous conditions for small craft today through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Now through Sunday...

Through Wednesday, a deep upper level trough over the eastern Conus moves off as a ridge that has built north over the Rockies shifts east to over the Mississippi River by Wednesday night. Guidance is advertising several shortwave impulses passing over the Southeast through the period, but with moisture return slow as a surface ridge organizes over the Southeast, am not expecting more more than an increase in mid/upper level clouds. With temperatures rising into mid week, but not moisture levels, low relative humidity levels will be an issue with fire weather concerns. More on that below. Back to temperatures, high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 85 return to the forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures see an uptick into the mid 50s to around 60 for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

The upper ridge over the Mississippi River continues to shift east the latter half of the week through the weekend, allowing shortwave energy to pass closer and closer to the Southeast. Ultimately, a weak surface front pushes south over the Southeast in the coming weekend in response. Combined with onshore flow bringing increased Gulf moisture inland, precipitation returns in the coming weekend. Highest PoPs are expected to be closer to the front, read over the northern half of the forecast area. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep temperatures above seasonal norms.

Offshore flow lasts into Tuesday, keeping the Rip Risk low into the coming week. The return of onshore flow mid week will bring back increased swell to area beaches and a rise in the Rip Current risk to Moderate to High the latter half of the week. /16

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail through Monday evening with only broken cirrus clouds passing overhead. North winds around 3 to 8 knots overnight will shift northeast at around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots Monday morning. /22

MARINE

Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Moderate to strong northeasterly flow this morning will diminish while shifting easterly through Tuesday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution this morning across Mobile bay and the Mississippi Sound. A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow follows Tuesday night through Friday. /22

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area. With drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect for Monday and Tuesday. Also, a Fire Alert has been issued for Alabama. Most of the ingredients for a Red Flag Watch/Warning are present, but not all. Will let day shift continue with coordination with relevant fire weather folks on any WWAs needed. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650- 655-670-675.