Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot and humid conditions return with heat indices of 100-107 this weekend.

- Risk for rip currents increases to MODERATE today through the weekend for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases significantly early next week bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Overall, the forecast for today is on track today, with high temperatures topping out in the 90-95 degree range over most of the forecast area (upper 80s along the coast), with Heat Indices topping out in the 95-100 degree range (locally higher in the hot spots). I did bump down this morning's low temperatures down a few degrees, with current temperatures currently at or a bit below the forecast. Also, there is a few localities with patchy fog, but widespread fog is not noticed. /16

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mostly hot and dry weather conditions prevail today into Friday as upper ridging remains dominant, with perhaps an isolated shower or storm either day along the northward advancing afternoon seabreeze boundary. Temperatures top out in the lower to middle 90's today and Friday, with morning temperatures starting off in the lower to middle 70's. Slightly better rain chances enter the picture this weekend as upper ridging weakens, with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms anticipated Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures remain hot overall, with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's and heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. Morning temperatures offer no relief as middle to upper 70's become common to start the day Saturday into early next week.

As we head into next week, we will see a pretty substantial pattern change start to take shape as upper ridging shifts southwest and upper troughing becomes dominant. There is already a pretty decent signal for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the region, particularly as we head into the early to middle part of next week. It's too early to get into the details on things, but overall deterministic and ensemble guidance supports a favorable pattern for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding potential during this timeframe. The axis of heaviest rainfall will be contingent on the evolution of the cold front as it stalls across the gulf coast states and any shortwaves rounding the base of the parent trough.

A Moderate risk of rip currents begins today and will last for the foreseeable future. While the morning may start off as a Low risk, the risk gradually ramps up to a Moderate this afternoon. Onshore winds strengthen quite a bit as we head into early next week, and it's likely for the risk to increase to a High sometime late Monday into Tuesday towards the end of the current forecast period. MM/25

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 5am/11z, with fog noted at KJKA. This fog is expected to quickly mix out soon after sunrise, with VFR conditions expected today. Patchy fog is again possible in favored areas tonight, but am holding off putting it in as it isn't a slam dunk. Winds are expected to be southerly through the forecast, rising from light to around 10 knots in the afternoon. /16

MARINE

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Light onshore flow will continue today. A diurnal pattern develops Friday through the weekend with light westerly flow at night and southwesterly flow during the day. Moderate onshore flow returns in the early to middle part of next week. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms this weekend. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None.