Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are possible, generally from south Brevard southward today. - Frequently gusty northeast winds behind a cold front today and gradually cooler air. The breezy and gusty winds continue, again, on Tuesday.

- Beach and boating conditions deteriorate rapidly and remain poor to hazardous through at least the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Current-Tonight...Cold front dropping southward across central FL early this morning, with gusty N/NNE winds behind it. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms over the local coastal waters and a small threat exists early in the period mainly across coastal counties for showers and cannot rule out an isolated storm, too. As we move into the daylight hours ISOLD-SCT showers and ISOLD storms are forecast - mainly from around south Brevard southward. Highest PoPs 30-50% for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County. Sustained (Breezy/Windy) NE winds will approach 15-22 mph areawide with frequent higher gusts (25-30 mph and perhaps to 35 mph with strongest gusts along the coast). Sky conditions will be mainly cloudy, with perhaps some relief in cloud ceilings across the I-4 corridor in the afternoon. Cooler temps in store with M- U70s along the coast and possibly near 80F to L80s well into the interior. Mostly dry tonight with slowly improving skies (north to south) and lower moisture values will allow overnight mins to fall into the U50s to around 60F across the interior and L-M60s near the coast. May see temps realize M50s for portions of north Lake and NW Volusia, with some U60s for immediate Treasure Coast.

Expect hazardous beach and boating conditions to develop early today continuing into the night. At the beaches, a strong southward- flowing longshore current will develop with rough surf likely. A Moderate to HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents will be present at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Entering the dangerous surf is strongly discouraged!

Tue-Sun...Aloft, weak shortwave ridging across the Deep South translates slowly eastward early in the period, then weak shortwave troughing moves into the region thru late work-week. At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the area from the north and will be centered over the western Atlc past mid-week, with any significant low pressure systems remaining north of the area. Generally drier air into mid-week with a stable maritime airmass in place and continued onshore flow into late week. Breezy/gusty (NE/ENE) winds continue in the forecast, again, for Tue. We keep conditions mainly dry thru the extended, but may have to monitor for a low PoP on Wed/Thu with potential low-topped, onshore-moving showers, suggested by medium range models. A weak pressure gradient pattern looks to lie across ECFL Fri-Sun, with lower wind speeds and a bit more variability in directional component. We may see an ISOLD chance for convection this weekend with a bump up in PWATs and daily sea breeze collisions across the interior.

More seasonal high temps into mid-week, with the onshore flow - U70s coast and L80s interior thru Thu, then a warm-up ensues Fri-Sun with max values approaching M-U80s and potential 90F over the interior.

Onshore flow will continue to keep coastal areas in the 60s for mins, and drier air will allow interior locations to dip into the M- U50s thru Fri morning, with 60s returning almost areawide Sat & Sun mornings.

MARINE

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Rapid deterioration for boating conditions early in the period as a cold front slides southward and N/NE winds increase to 20-25 kts with frequent higher gusts into tonight. Seas will build in response to the winds, 7-10 ft Gulf Stream and 5-7 ft near shore. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will go into effect this morning areawide. Gusty NE/ENE winds continue into Tue with a gradual diminishing into the afternoon and evening. Seas will be slower to subside and we will gradually cut back on the SCA (north to south) Tue/Tue night. Weak high pressure builds into the area behind the front with the pressure gradient relaxing mid to late week. Winds remain generally onshore for much of the work-week. Poor boating may continue southward into Tue evening as seas still slowly decrease, with seas becoming 3-5 ft on Wed and AOB 3 ft areawide during the day on Thu into Fri.

Showers and ISOLD-SCT storms will be forecast today across the local waters, becoming concentrated Cape southward by mid morning. Dry conditions return areawide tonight.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A cold front will continue drifting southward across the Florida peninsula early this morning, with winds becoming northeasterly behind the front. MCO/ISM to TIX and terminals northward have already shifted to out of the northeast. Wind speeds also will increase behind the front, reaching 10 to 15 knots early this morning with gusts to 25 knots possible. Into this afternoon, speeds continue to increase up to 20 knots, with gusts to 30 knots possible. VCSH will be possible from TIX southward later this afternoon. Gusty winds will diminish after midnight at the terminals, with northeast winds remaining breezy at 10 to 15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Heightened fire sensitivity through early this week, as a cold front moves through the area. Expect windy conditions today as northeast winds increase to 15-20 mph sustained with frequent higher gusts to 25-30 mph - potentially to 35 mph, strongest gusts along the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps an isolated lightning storms along the coast early this morning, with greatest precip chances during the daylight hours, typically south of a Melbourne to Kenansville line. Very Good to Excellent dispersion today. Min RH values may fall to 35-45% this afternoon generally along and north of I-4 as cloud-cover begins to thin and drier air filters south behind the latest front.

Breezy, gusty, northeast to east-northeast winds (~ 15 mph), again, on Tuesday. Lowest afternoon min RH values fall to 28-35% across I-4 and well into the interior south of here. Near Red Flag conditions will exist on this day. Very Good to Excellent dispersion will continue to cause control concerns. For awareness, will hoist a Fire Weather Watch for interior Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Okeechobee counties.

Onshore winds gradually slacken mid to late week, with a slight RH recovery - though lowest RHs across the interior will still realize 35-45%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MLB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for FLZ041-044>046-053-058- 144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ552.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.