Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Marine headlines issued for Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe drought conditions and elevated fire concerns persist through at least mid-week.

2) Unsettled weather may develop by this weekend and last into early next week with at least a modest chance of showers and thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe drought conditions continue to plague the entire Southeast U.S., with rainfall amounts since March 1 running about 10-50% of normal. Locally here in ENC, this equates to rainfall totals running about 2-5" below normal over that same time period. Almost all of ENC remains in Severe Drought (D2), with a small part of Martin County in Extreme Drought (D3).

Given the ongoing drought, fire weather will continue to be a concern until a more substantial rain event occurs. Today we will reach low RH's 20-25% inland, but winds should remain light with high pressure overhead. Deep mixing in the afternoon Wednesday allows for relative humidities 20-30% and wind gusts of 20-30 mph. Thursday and Friday also have low RH's, but winds gusts are currently forecast to be below 20 mph.

In light of the expected dry and breezy conditions on Wednesday, and in collaboration with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for all of ENC for Wednesday.

A statewide burn bans remains in effect for all of North Carolina, with additional fire restrictions at all four national forests in NC. Please see statements from the Forest Service for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A modest increase in moisture and instability along a stalled frontal boundary draped NW to SE from the Mid- Atlantic into eastern NC may be a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms on Friday. This is then expected to be followed by a more substantial plume of moisture within an increasingly active upper level pattern over the weekend and into next week. During this time, model guidance differs on the evolution of a SFC low that is forecast to track east across the Carolinas. There appears to be 2 camps in model guidance. The first is a weaker low that moves through Sunday/Monday, leaving behind a stalled frontal boundary that becomes a focus for additional precipitation Tuesday. The second possible solution is for a stronger surface low to move through Sunday/Monday. This would favor a stronger push south with the cold front, which then favors drier, but cooler, weather towards the middle of next week.

Regardless of the evolution of that low, increasing moisture, lift, and instability should favor one, or more, rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest chance focused Saturday into Sunday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday/Tuesday, but this will depend on the strength of the low as outlined above. Within this pattern, there may be enough shear and instability for at least a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, especially Saturday, and this is something we'll monitor in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are forecast across the entire CWA through the period. High pressure currently building in from the north gradually shifts offshore tonight bringing light winds, mo clear skies and dry weather to the area into Wednesday morning. As we get towards midday Wed, winds become SW and increase closer to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts across the area as the pressure gradient tightens between an incoming weak cold front and departing high pressure.

Outlook: No significant changes to the longer term forecast as mostly dry and VFR conditions are likely to continue through the rest of the week. The next chance for rain, and sub-VFR conditions, could begin as early as Saturday night.

MARINE

Northeast winds of 10-15kt are expected to gradually lay down through tonight as high pressure shifts overhead. Winds will quickly rebuild to 15-25kt on Wednesday in advance of a cold front approaching from the north. These moderately strong southwesterly winds will last into late Wednesday evening.

For the coastal and outer waters, seas of 2-4ft this afternoon will build to 3-6ft with the building winds on Wednesday. Seas are then expected to fall back to 2-4ft by early Thursday morning.

Scattered thunderstorms may accompany Wednesday's cold front, especially for the waters between Oregon Inlet and Ocracoke Inlet.

Outlook: An area of low pressure is forecast to move through the ENC waters this weekend with elevated winds and seas and the potential for thunderstorms. The greatest thunderstorm risk appears to be on Saturday. Winds and seas early next week could be higher than forecast if the above mentioned low ends up deepening offshore as some guidance suggests.

MHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.