Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 244 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026 - Windy and gusty conditions will continue across South Florida through Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region.

- Hazardous marine conditions remain in place across all local waters through tonight. These hazardous conditions may linger across the Atlantic waters into Wednesday morning.

- Relative humidity values will drop into the 30-35% range this afternoon over Southwest Florida. A Red Flag Warning Remains in effect until 8 PM this evening for Southwest Florida.

UPDATE

Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Strong high pressure continues to build into the region keeping a tight pressure gradient in place across South Florida. This will allow for the gusty northeasterly winds to remain in place through the evening hours. With plenty of subsidence taking place, an abundance of dry air continues to filter into the region as the latest PWAT values generally are hovering between 0.6 and 0.8 inches. This will keep shower chances extremely limited through tonight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 50s across interior portions of Southwest Florida to the upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Models and sfc analyses show a synoptic scenario dominated by an expanding high pressure across the SE CONUS and Florida in the wake of a FROPA. The ridge axis will remain north of SoFlo, while the frontal boundary continues to push further south into Cuba and the central Gulf waters today. This will bring a drier air mass across the area, with pressure gradients tightening up between the front to the south and the high pressure to the north. Therefore, expect generally NE winds to gradually increase today with potential for gusts into the 25-30 mph range. Coastal locations right along the Atlantic coastline may experience even higher gusts at times. These conditions will also result in several marine hazards affecting the beaches and the Atlantic coastal waters. For more details, please refer to the Marine section below.

A few showers may still develop over the southern-most portions of the CWA, then rain activity should end by the late morning hours. Cooler and drier air advection will prevail this afternoon with relative humidity values dropping into the 35-40% range over much of central/western SoFlo. Please see the Fire Weather section below for more details about fire hazards today.

For Wednesday, expect the drier trend to continue, while pressure gradients start to relax. This will bring a downward trend in wind speeds by the afternoon hours.

The cooler airmass and the persisting ENE winds will keep afternoon highs in the upper 70s over much of the eastern half of SoFlo, and low to mid 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Long range solutions remain fairly persistent in depicting an upper lvl disturbance developing over the SE CONUS and moving into the Gulf for the Thu-Fri time frame. Latest ensembles show an associated low lvl feature also developing over the Gulf, but remaining very weak. The added moisture and instability may bring low-end POP coverage (15-25%) each day, with best chances Friday afternoon, and QPF values in the half inch range or lower.

GFS and Euro bring a weak frontal boundary into the SE CONUS and northern Florida to start the weekend, although it remains uncertain how far south the front may reach. Regardless, the arrival of the boundary will push a ridge of high pressure into the western Atlantic, and further relaxing winds over SoFlo through Sunday. Light winds or even calm periods are possible Sunday afternoon, with overall flow acquiring a southerly component ahead of the front. Combined with daytime heating, this may favor a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly over interior and northern portions of SoFlo each afternoon. Then conditions may begin to dry again early next week behind the departing front.

Temperatures should remain slightly cooler than normals through Friday, with afternoon highs along east coast locations in the upper 70s, and morning lows over interior areas in the low 60s. A gradual warming will follow during the weekend, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s across most areas, and morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. ENE winds will continue to range between 15 and 20 kts through this evening with gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible during this time frame. Winds will become more easterly on Wednesday as gusty conditions remain in place.

MARINE

Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Hazardous boating conditions continue today in the wake of a frontal passage. A few showers and thunderstorms are still possible, mainly over the Atlantic waters, through the late morning hours. Breezy and gusty NE winds will prevail today with hazardous conditions due to seas building up to 8-11 ft over the Atlantic and wind speeds of 20kt or higher. Gulf seas will range from 3-6 ft.

BEACHES

Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Strong onshore flow and will promote a high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through the middle of the week. An increasing swell will also bring high surf along the Palm Beach coastline for which a high surf advisory is in effect.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Drier air and breezy northeasterly winds will continue through the early evening hours as strong high pressure builds into the region, and exacerbates the fire weather conditions. Latest model data brings relative humidity values down to the 30-35 percent range over Southwest Florida this afternoon. The 20 ft winds may reach the 15-20 mph range at times, along with FPFs in the 2.6-3.4 range. Because of this, a Red Flag Warning remains in place for Southwest Florida through 8 PM this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MFL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.