Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

-Hot and humid conditions are expected through Thursday evening, including heat index values reaching 100 to 105 degrees.

-Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across northwest Arkansas Thursday evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible.

-Increasing and more widespread rain chances are expected through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Thurs wl bring another day of hot and humid conditions acrs the FA, w/ area high temps climbing to the low to mid 90s. The greatest heat risk, including heat index values over 100 degrees, is expected over portions of the AR River Valley, and Ern to NErn AR. Thru the day, gusty SWrly winds of 10 to 15 kts should aid in BL mixing and keeping dewpoints lower.

Thurs evening, a sfc cdfrnt is progged to advance into NWrn AR near 12/00Z. An attendant, but isolated severe threat is fcst along this frnt as it moves thru the Ozark Plateau region. A pre-frontal environment characterized by modest instability, but generally weaker effective shear is expected. Latest suite of CAMs is indicative of a semi-discrete cluster storm-mode, though mainly bndry parallel shear wl support cold pool interactions and lkly hinder a prolonged discrete storm-mode. The main hazards w/ any convective development wl include damaging wind gusts and large hail.

The aforementioned frnt is progged to wash out acrs the FA, and become the focus for daily and more widespread PoPs thru the weekend. NBM guidance remains settled on weekend QPF totals around 2 to 3 inches acrs a large portion of the state. There is still considerable spread amongst NBM probabilistic guidance, w/ 10th to 90th percentile spread close to 3 to 4 inches over much of the state. Latest deterministic guidance also continues to highlight this uncertainty, w/ a more Swrd trend in the stalled frnt closer to the AR/LA border region. On the brighter side, daily temperatures thru the weekend PD wl be several degrees cooler acrs the region, including some much needed overnight cooling relief.

By mid-week next week and thru the end of the PD, rain chances taper off as H500 troughing maneuvers thru the Srn US and drives the aforementioned stalled frnt forward towards the Gulf Coast. Upper troughing is progged to give way to more zonal flow/weak ridging, w/ sfc high pressure residing over the FA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mainly VFR condns were noted around the FA Thurs mrng w/ intermittent MVFR CIGs noted acrs Wrn to Nrn terminals. Expect CIGs to improve to VFR condns by late Thurs mrng, w/ gusty SWrly winds of 15-20 kts at most terminals thru the aftn. By 12/00Z, precip chances wl incrs over NWrn AR along an advancing cdfrnt. Have kept PROB30 groups for Nrn terminals, but low confidence exists on timing and covg of TSRA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.