Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Above normal afternoon high temperatures expected through the end of the work week, and possibly longer.

- Mainly dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday.

- Slight chance for showers and storms on Thursday across a large part of the state, higher chance on Friday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Mostly clear skies over most of the state late this evening with a few high level clouds streaming over parts of southern and southwest Arkansas. Temperatures across the state currently are in the 50s with morning lows likely to bottom out in the lower to mid 40s over a large part of the state with upper 40s over far parts of east Arkansas.

High pressure continues to be in control of the weather across the Natural State. Latest deterministic guidance shows the high pressure currently over the southern Plains will gradually slide off to the east to the mid south later this morning and into the southeastern US by Tuesday. In response to the ridge of high pressure moving east of the state, winds will veer to the south, then southwest by Tuesday afternoon bringing warm up north into the state along with subtle moisture return reflected in gradually increasing dew points.

Attention turns toward the end of the work week as the weather pattern is expected to get active and unsettled weather pattern at the end of the work week into next weekend. Satellite late this evening shows a rather amplified trough just off the central California coast. Latest model guidance shows the trough will moves ashore on Monday morning, then east into the Great Basin by Wednesday night. There are some timing differences on the evolution of the trough as it progressives into the central Plains by Thursday.

The trough will drag a surface cold front into the central southern plains. A subtle shortwave will round the base of the parent trough will bring chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the west two-thirds of the state on Thursday afternoon. As the main shortwave ejects northeast of the state Friday, additional upper level troughing over the west and southwest will remain in place. This will keep the cold front just west of the state Friday through at least part of the weekend, possibly into early next week before it may finally push through the state.

This pattern is conducive bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, of which a few could be strong to severe to the state and not favoring an aggressive frontal push. All modes of severe weather are possible next weekend and possibly into early next week. In additional to the severe weather, if multiple rounds of heavy rainfall do occur, then there would be a threat of at least localized flash flooding within areas that received multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Temperatures are expected to remain slight above normal through the entire forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR condns wl prevail thru the new TAF PD. Gusty winds wl subside overnight, w/ incrsg mid lvl cloud covg noted acrs Wrn to SWrn AR. Gusty SWrly winds of 10-12 kts and gusts in excess of 15 kts wl resume by 15Z Tues aftn. There wl lkly be some covg of precip moving into SWrn AR later Tues aftn, but confidence remains low on local terminal impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.