Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening.

- After another warm and muggy day today, relatively cooler temperatures are expected through early next week.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Through Friday Night) Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave digging into the Central Plains. Ahead of that, a diffuse low-level jet is feeding convection along a stalled cold front across the Midwest. Given the front has stalled and the low-level jet will become increasingly focused west-northwest of the CWA, convective coverage is expected to gradually wind down through the pre-dawn hours. Chances for scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will be primarily confined to portions of Illinois north of I-70 where low-level flow interacts with outflow boundaries.

Through the day today, deep south-southwesterly flow will continue advecting warm air into the CWA south of the cold front, leading to another muggy day. There is minor concern that dew points pooling ahead of the front will give humidity levels enough of a boost to push areas above a 105 degree heat index; however, another day of southwesterly surface flow is expected to mitigate this threat via downsloping effects from the Ozarks.

Dew points in the low to mid 70s will yield SBCAPE values of at least 3,000 J/kg ahead of the front that will begin pivoting east- southeastward as the aforementioned shortwave moves through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. The surging of the front paired with the lift from the shortwave is expected to initiate convection during the early afternoon across north-central Missouri and southern Iowa. Given the amount of instability present, updrafts will rapidly intensify, with additional updrafts expected to develop southward along the front. As these storms move into the CWA, deep-layer shear magnitude and vector orientation will favor supercells capable of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes across northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois along and north of Hwy 36/I-72. Further south, deep-layer shear will decrease and become increasingly parallel to the front, with a threat of multicellular clusters posing mainly a damaging wind threat. With forcing being tied to and immediately ahead of the front, there is concern over updrafts congealing and/or being undercut by the front. This would lead to a lower tornado and large hail threat, though if storms are able to remain more discrete and ahead of the front, a greater tornado and hail threat will be realized.

The front and associated convection will clear the CWA to the southeast around midnight, with a cooler airmass advecting into the region. This will bring a notable change to our weather on Friday, with seasonable temperatures, lower humidity, and mostly clear skies expected areawide.

Elmore

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Early on Saturday, the area of high pressure at the surface responsible for Friday's weather will shift eastward, allowing for low-level moisture to stream back into the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. This will be occurring ahead of another shortwave digging into the Midwest, sending yet another cold front through the region. At this lead time, there are still notable differences among guidance in the degree of moisture return and local FROPA. For locations within the warm sector, deep-layer shear of roughly 40 kts will support supercells capable mainly of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A majority of guidance has low-level wind shear too weak for a notable tornado threat. Even if severe thunderstorms aren't realized in the CWA, this will serve as another chance for rain across the area - mainly late Saturday into early Sunday.

In the wake of Saturday's front, ensembles support daily temperatures at or just below climatology as upper-level troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS through at least the middle of the week. The general positioning of the trough among deterministic guidance and ensemble clusters will open the CWA to northwest-flow disturbances, but at this lead time, a majority of ensemble guidance keeps the area dry through the first half of the week.

Elmore

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The main focus for impacts at all local terminals will come this afternoon and evening as a cold front and associated thunderstorms pass through the region. Impacts at most will be limited to an hour or two at the local terminals. Thunderstorms at the very least will be capable of heavy, visibility-reducing rainfall, frequent lightning, and erratic winds. There is a low chance for strong winds and large hail at any of the local terminals, but particularly at KUIN. Once the front and storms clear the local terminals, VFR flight conditions and northwesterly winds are expected through the rest of the period.

Elmore

LSX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. IL...None.