Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy smoke across western Nebraska from wildfire in the Panhandle this evening

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions on Friday with a Red Flag Warning

- Gusty Winds Friday and Saturday

- Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday into Monday behind a strong cold front, with highs mainly in the 60s and lower 70s.

- A warming trend returns by midweek, with highs climbing back into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the fire weather concern Friday along with gusty winds both Friday and Saturday, along with a patchy smoke concern. As for today, the rest of the afternoon winds will continue to be strong out of the northwest brining smoke from the South Fork fire across the Panhandle into portions of western Nebraska. The HRRR keeps the near-sfc smoke patchy across portions of Garden, Keith, Deuel, and Perkins counties through the evening hours. Near-sfc smoke is not anticipated to be thick and degrade any sfc visibility thus any impact will be minor and brief and generally before late evening.

As for Friday, strong southwesterly winds and WAA will warm temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s. The warmest temperatures will be across western NE along the nose of the 850mb thermal ridge were temperatures in the low 90s will be expected. Southwesterly winds will begin to increase by mid to late morning, which is supported by RAP soundings. Forecaster confidence is high that strong winds sustained around 20 to 30 mph will be expected with the strongest winds across western Nebraska into the western Sandhills. Winds gusts up to 45 mph is expected, however there is the potential, depending how deep we mix that we could potentially see some stronger sfc wind gusts as there are winds greater than 50 kts in the mid levels across western Nebraska. Given the strong winds in combination with low min RH values around 10 to 15 percent across western Nebraska a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of western Nebraska, for more information regarding fire weather see the fire weather section below.

There still remains a very low chance for some overnight convection as the LLJ strengthens Friday night, as instability increase, but confidence at this time remains low and coverage is expected to remain minimal, generally just a small portion of the cwa, mostly just portions of Custer County into Blaine and Loup and potentially Garfield and Wheeler, with the greatest chance for overnight convection Friday night into Saturday across central Nebraska.

As for Saturday, a cold front will move south across the area keeping temperatures cooler with highs only in the 70s. Winds will be strong out of the north around 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Sunday, a deep upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes region, resulting in northwest flow across the region. This will allow a strong cold front for this time of year to move through the area and push south of the region by Sunday morning. Behind the front, mid-level cold air advection will continue, keeping precipitation chances south and east of the area. It will remain quite cloudy throughout the day Sunday, and with continued cold air advection and northerly winds, highs may struggle to climb out of the 60s across much of the area. The NBM 50th percentile continues to show highs near 70 degrees, while the NBM 25th percentile remains in the mid to upper 60s, which appears more reasonable given the expected cloud cover and cold air advection. In terms of fire weather concerns, relative humidity values may fall as low as 20 percent across portions of north-central Nebraska. However, with wind speeds generally in the 5 to 15 mph range and recent rainfall over the past few weeks, fire weather concerns should remain low. Lows Sunday night will remain quite cool, with temperatures in the lower 40s across the Sandhills and mid to upper 40s farther south and east, which is around 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Monday, northwest flow aloft will continue to strengthen across the region as the upper level trough over the Great Lakes deepens. This will support a secondary surge of cooler air through the area during the day Monday. Model guidance does indicate some mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis as a shortwave dives south from the longwave trough over the eastern United States. This could result in some precipitation chances across the southern portion of the forecast area. With cooler temperatures in place, any precipitation would likely be showery in nature and no thunderstorms or severe weather would be expected. There remains considerable uncertainty with this scenario, and it currently appears the better precipitation chances would remain south across Kansas. Highs on Monday are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s, with lows Monday night in the mid to upper 40s.

Tuesday and beyond, the trough over the Great Lakes will slowly shift east while the ridge across the western United States begins to nudge eastward. This will promote low to mid-level warm air advection and increasing downslope flow off the Rockies. As a result, a warming trend is expected, with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Tuesday into late next week. Relative humidity values may fall into the teens each afternoon, leading to possible increasing fire weather concerns, particularly across the Sandhills. While forecast winds currently remain modest, patterns such as this often trend stronger with the wind speeds as the period approaches. Therefore, the mid to late next week period will continue to be monitored closely for increasing fire weather concerns. Overnight lows will also moderate, with temperatures generally returning to the mid to upper 50s. Overall, the pattern through mid to late next week appears predominantly dry and does not currently support meaningful or widespread precipitation chances across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There will be strong winds through the day with northwest winds around 20 to 25 kts sustained and gusts of 30 kts or more possible. Strongest winds will be across western Nebraska. Winds will diminish this evening, then become light and variable in the overnight. Winds will shift to the southwest around 10 to 20 kts by late Friday morning with gusts up to 30 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Despite recent rainfall over the past days, widespread wetting rainfall has been sparse across fire weather zone 204. Partners across western Nebraska have said fuels remain partially cured for the area, thus after collaboration a decision was made to issue a RFW for fire weather zone 204. Leading into Friday's critical fire weather concerns, overnight recover tonight will be poor with only 65 to 75% RH expected during the overnight period, thus made an earlier start time for the RFW, beginning at 10am MDT Friday, correlating with winds the winds start to increase. Elsewhere, recent wetting rains will keep fire weather conditions low, however strong southerly winds with gusts up to 45 mph will still be expected.

LBF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for NEZ204.