Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight for Fleming County. A more widespread and impactful frost or freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning across much of eastern Kentucky, where a Freeze Watch has been issued.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through much of the work week due to continued dry conditions.

- Temperatures will quickly rebound starting Tuesday, becoming well above normal with highs reaching the 80s by Thursday.

- A weak front brings a slight chance of rain to northern areas on Wednesday, but the next significant chance for widespread, beneficial rainfall arrives late Friday into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1105 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

The front remains on track to slip into the area overnight and bring a potential for sprinkles ahead of eventual clearing and small frost potential north of I-64. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure south of the area in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky as another cold front, mostly dry, drops into the CWA from the north. This will sneak some possible sprinkles into this part of the state this evening and early overnight along with a passing deck of mid level clouds. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, amid northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some lingering higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SPS, and NPWs.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Much cooler and drier weather has arrived behind the cold front which is now departing off the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Thermometer readings range from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the JKL CWA this afternoon, except in the mid 40s to low 50s above 2,500 feet while dew point temperatures range mainly in the 20s. The surface weather map shows our area on the northeastern edge of a surface high centered over the Ark-La-Tex. To our northwest a secondary cold front (associated with a surface low over northern Quebec) is draped from Lake Huron to northern Missouri and then NW to along the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies. An even cooler and drier Canadian high is found behind this secondary cold front with readings across Wisconsin, Minnesota and North Dakota in the 30s/40s and dew points in the single digits/10s.

Fair and very dry conditions will initially be in place this evening, allowing temperatures to fall off quickly after sunset. While available moisture will be limited, cloud cover will increase overnight as the secondary cold front drops south of the Ohio River. Some of the guidance supports a little light precipitation, likely in the form of a few sprinkles, with the frontal passage. The clouds should arrive in time to slow temperature falls and prevent widespread frost concerns over most of eastern Kentucky. There is a low chance that some patchy frost might form in a few sheltered places out ahead of the increase in cloud cover, especially far southern Kentucky, but those areas will also be going into the night with some of the warmest temperatures. The front and associated cloud cover should clear areas near and north of I-64 late in the night and that is when the northernmost counties, especially Fleming County, have a chance of quickly dropping into the mid 30s and experiencing frost formation. Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been issued for Fleming County from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT on Monday (aligning well with Frost Advisories from LMK, ILN, and RLX). An SPS for frost was issued for counties just south of the Frost Advisories from Elliott to Montgomery counties where there is a lower but non-zero chance for some frost, especially if the frontal passage trends toward the faster side. Outside of the Frost Advisory, most locations should see lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s (even so a few of the coolest spots outside of the Frost Advisory could briefly reach the mid 30s as well).

On Monday, any lingering cloud cover and/or sprinkles will exit into TN and VA during the morning with a cool northwesterly breeze continuing throughout the day. High temperatures are only expected to reach the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday afternoon in spite of abundant sunshine while dew points dip into the mid 10s to the mid 20s, driest northeast. The Canadian high pressure center scoots to over the Eastern Great Lakes by Monday evening and crosses the Appalachians Monday night. The proximity of the high will maintain the very dry air mass, clear skies and light winds across our area for most of Monday night (some return flow may try to develop over central Kentucky toward daybreak Tuesday, but that will still be after most of a night of cooling). Given the expected efficient radiative cooling conditions and very dry air mass, temperatures are likely to fall rapidly after sunset on Monday evening, especially in the sheltered Coalfield Valleys, and that has warranted the issuance of a Freeze Watch from 1 AM EDT Tuesday to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for most areas southeast of the Bluegrass and east of I-75. In the Freeze Watch area, GFS COOP MOS supports lows of 28 to 32F in many of the valley locales. Outside of the Freeze Watch area, temperatures are still expected to approach the freezing mark (and even reach it in some of the cooler spots) but the dryness of the air mass could limit frost formation. Given how advanced our growing season is this year (April is already running 8.5 to 10F warmer than normal thus far and more like May), a Frost Advisory may eventually be needed Monday night for most or all of our remaining counties outside of the Freeze Watch area. Growers are encouraged to take steps now to protect frost/freeze-sensitive vegetation.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Overall guidance shows reasonable agreement for the first part of the long term period. The period begins with a return of above normal temperatures, as high pressure of the east provides return flow across the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will feature mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Most of the guidance does show a weak cold front trying to make it southward toward Kentucky by Wednesday. However, strengthening mid-level riding and weak moisture return will make this feature overall lack luster. Even so the NBM does show enough signal for a few showers (chance of rain 15-40 percent) and perhaps a rumble of thunder mainly along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Then drier and warm weather return to the area Thursday, with afternoon highs topping out into the lower 80s.

By the end of the week and going into next weekend there is good signal for the ridging to break down. We will see another cold front approach the Ohio Valley by Friday. The front will however eventually stall out around the Ohio Valley. This is where guidance does diverge on the synoptic pattern and leads to more uncertainty. Even so, the pattern does shift to a more active one with quasi- zonal mid-level flow. Right now the best chance of rain is Friday night into Saturday where chance of rain will generally be in the 50- 60 percent chance range, which these lower PoP numbers show some of the aforementioned uncertainty. The mean of the guidance would suggest rainfall amounts of around three quarters of an inch or less from Friday night into Sunday for most locations. Hopefully this will provide at least some relieve to the ongoing weather issues, but the lack of better upper level support keeps us from the higher rainfall amounts desired right now.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. A cloud deck in the 5-9K ft AGL range is currently dropping south through the area. A few sprinkles may occur beneath the clouds. Skies will clear as the clouds depart to the south and dry up during the day.

JKL WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044.

Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-086>088-104-106>120.