Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather will continue through much of the upcoming week.

- Fire danger is increasing for Tuesday.

- Confidence is increasing for significant rainfall amounts late this week into the weekend that may potentially improve drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Through Thursday: Warm and dry conditions will be the general rule through mid week as upper level ridging brings subsident, anticyclonic flow. There will be an uptick in fire danger Tuesday due to a deep mixing layer that will support gusty winds during peak heating and critically low RH values. Have gone ahead and messaged this formally in the HWO graphics. We'll be monitoring for additional fire danger threats in the Wed-Thu time frame. /EC/

Friday and the weekend:

Our next meaningful chance for drought affecting rains comes Friday as an upper low moving inland across the the western CONUS interacts and merges with a long wave polar trough moving across Canada and the northern US at the same time. This will result in a merged/phased trough that is slow to move eastward with lowered heights across the plains states. Our area will, as has been the case numerous times recently, be on the eastern fringe of trough influence. This could allow convective clusters to attempt to persist/develop eastward enough to yield local rain and thunderstorms as upper flow increases through the weekend.

Some model guidance suggests this pattern could linger for a few days which could result in 1-3 inches of rain on average for most areas. This would mostly be a beneficial rainfall were it to come to fruition but, as we've seen, when a drought pattern becomes entrenched, a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted when model guidance begins to propose changes. The guidance that has attempted to do this over the past month or two have of course proven incorrect. /86/

Per recent SPC and NCAR/AI guidance, there has been a low end risk for severe weather indicated in our region during the Friday-Sunday time frame. Timing/placement details are still too shaky at this point to try and pin down a severe weather threat in our graphics and will continue to hold off on mentioning it. /EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites during this 12Z forecast period. Cirrus will continue to stream southeast across the area during this time. Winds will begin to have a more southerly component through the course of the day while sustained between 5-10 knots, with a few higher gusts at times. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.