Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress is likely Friday through Sunday.

- A pattern favorable for flash flooding will develop early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Through tonight: Continued warmer than normal with dry weather through the period. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA still on the eastern periphery of a 591dam high centered over east Texas and southwest Louisiana. This high will become rather flat as it expands to the east through tonight. Early morning surface analysis still had a ridge nosing west along the northern Gulf coast. This surface ridge will drift south across the northern Gulf by Friday morning. The resulting low level southerly flow will maintain our warm moist airmass. As temperatures climb into the 90s again this afternoon peak heat index values will be in the lower 100s over most of our area. Tonight a weak cold front will approach our CWA. The precipitation associated with the front should remain northwest of our CWA until after sunrise Friday. Temperatures bottom out above normal again and patchy light fog will be possible toward sunrise in the south. /22/

Through mid next week...

Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue to be the dominant features influencing our weather through the weekend. Low level flow will mostly stay southerly to southwesterly which will keep the humidity high, with dewpoints in the 70s throughout. All the while, temperatures aloft will support temperatures in the low to mid 90s, perhaps upper 90s in spots. Heat advisory criteria will more than likely be reached and a heat advisory continues to be advertised for Friday through Saturday. Greater coverage of convection leaves Sunday more uncertain, but cannot rule out an extension into Sunday as well for some of the area. The accompanying heat graphic continues to include an area of "Elevated" risk for heat stress.

By Monday, a trough over the central CONUS digs and impinges on the ridge. An associated surface boundary sags southward into the area early next week. Exact timing of this feature is uncertain at this time. A large plume of rich moisture with PWAT around 2.5 inches surges northward in response, and pools ahead of the boundary. The boundary should provide a focus for training convection, while the rich moisture supports very efficient rain rates. Additionally, forecast guidance suggests upper ascent with our area situated beneath the right entrance region of the midlevel jet will be likely. Considering the slow moving nature of the frontal boundary, ascent, and potentially multiple surges of tropical moisture, there is synoptic support for potentially significant flash flooding. Confidence remains high enough to maintain a limited graphic for flood at this time areawide. The frontal boundary may push south or may stall across southern portions of the area just beyond the period mid next week, which should decrease flash flood threat. Timing window of greatest confidence at this time remains Monday through Wednesday. /SAS/86/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018- 019-025-034-035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ009- 016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ075.