Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid today. Heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees.

- Thunderstorms likely again late tonight. Strong to severe storms possible, especially across northwestern portions of central Indiana.

- Slightly cooler weather for the weekend with near average temperatures.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The pattern aloft is characterized by ridging over the eastern US and into Canada with troughing over the western US and northern Plains. Troughing has been gradually pushing eastward over the past few days. Embedded waves have ejected from the trough, bringing round after round of severe weather across the Plains and Midwest. We are seeing the remnants of some of these storms right now, as an MCS enters Indiana from the NW as of this writing. Weakening is expected as the system outruns the best synoptic forcing and shear. Nevertheless, thunderstorms with gusty wind are possible as far as Indianapolis through the morning hours.

Once the rain dissipates, we'll be left with clearing skies. High temperatures today will be near 90, with dew points into the low to mid 70s. Max heat indices are forecasted to be between 100 and 105, which may lead to enhanced heat risk for vulnerable populations.

After a mostly dry day today, another round of convection associated with a wave ejecting from the broader trough arrives tonight. Guidance shows a bit more energy in the atmosphere which could lead to severe thunderstorms at times, especially northwestern portions of central Indiana. Like this past evening, storms likely become outflow dominant as they head southeast away from the best forcing and shear. Strong to severe wind gusts and localized flooding are the primary hazards with the highest threat in our NW.

Once that system and its cold front pass through late Thursday night, a transition to a cooler and less active pattern appears likely. Broad troughing aloft looks to persist this weekend and into next week, with near-average temperatures (highs near 80 and lows near 60) along with lower humidity. A few weak waves embedded within the broader trough may bring rain chances on Sunday and then again on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. These are subtle features and are hard to pin point this far out. So we will maintain only chance PoPs next week until the signal become clearer.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Impacts:

- Rain ending this morning.

- Gusty SW winds from 20-25 kts during the afternoon.

- Thunderstorms arrive this evening, approaching KIND during freighter inbounds.

- LLWS between 40-45kt tonight.

Discussion:

Showers and thunderstorms persist over central Indiana, with light rain at all terminals. Rain will come to an end between 12-13z with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the day.

Increasing SW wind gusts of 20-25 kts by afternoon are expected.

Another convective line will move across central Indiana Thursday night possibly affecting KIND during the middle part of the freighter inbounds. A prob30 group was included for all terminals given the potential for strong thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions.

After the storms end tonight, a cold front will cross the area causing winds to become west-northwesterly.

IND WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.