Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous storms likely across southeast Kansas this afternoon and early evening.

- Seasonable temperatures and drier conditions likely on Friday.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible on Saturday.

- Below average temperatures and mostly dry conditions Sun-Mon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front was bisecting central and south central Kansas late this morning and this front will continue moving south and east today. Considerable capping early in the day is progged to erode by 19Z with rapid thunderstorm development anticipated shortly thereafter. Storms are expected to initiate over the Flint Hills while quickly spreading into southeast Kansas by 20-21Z. Moderate to extreme buoyancy is progged once again with mid 70 dewpoints/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear around 30 knots. Severe storms with damaging winds are expected to be the primary concern although some large hail may be possible early in the process. We continue to see strong support for linear mode along the surging frontal boundary. The most robust activity may clear the area by 00Z or shortly thereafter before a stable post-frontal regime overspreads the area. Heavy rain will be likely over southeast Kansas as the prefrontal airmass remains in the high PWAT axis, but due to the short duration of the storms, widespread flooding impacts are not anticipated.

A tranquil day is anticipated on Friday as the front forces the hot, humid airmass just south of the area briefly. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with highs in the 80s while we see a break from the higher humidity. As we move into Friday night, a subtle disturbance emerging from the Rockies may allow for some deep moist convection across the High Plains. As the nocturnal LLJ ramps up, we may see this activity propagate eastward across Kansas through the overnight and early morning hours with continued mid- level waa. There remains some uncertainty in how long this activity will linger. We may also see other elevated storms develop along the nose of the LLJ in parts of central and south central KS during the predawn hours on Saturday. Elevated CAPE/shear would support some large hail with any storms that develop during the predawn hours. Some of this activity could linger into Saturday morning which could impact the evolution of storms on Saturday afternoon and evening.

Sat...another cold front is progged to sag southward during the afternoon hours on Saturday. If the airmass can recover from morning convection, we could see the potential for strong and severe storms developing as we remain on the southern fringe of the strong belt of mid-level flow with deep layer shear around 40-50 knots. Areas across southern Kansas may be favored based on how quickly the frontal boundary progresses. The focus for more robust deep moist convection should move south of the area on Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday..Sunday is shaping up to be another nice day as we are now expected to be in a stable post-frontal regime. The current forecast has some low POPs lingering Sat night into Sunday but confidence in dry conditions returning on Sunday has increased considerably over the past 24-hrs. Seasonably cool conditions are anticipated with highs topping out in the 70s. Another day with below average temperatures is anticipated on Monday, although a subtle shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies could bring some low potential for showers and storms to the area. We are expecting to see highs in the upper 70s/around 80 on Monday.

Tue-Thu...We continue to see support for a northwest mid/upper flow regime through much of next week. Often in this scenario we could see more subtle shortwave troughs emerging from the Rockies bringing isolated or widely scattered storms from time-to-time but confidence in more widespread activity remains low at this time. More seasonable temperatures will return on Tuesday with hot and humid conditions arriving by the middle of the week with highs in the 90s and low mostly in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A cold front will continue moving south and east across the area today shifting winds to the north at 25 to 35 knots. A broken line of storms is expected to develop across southeast Kansas along this front after 20Z impacting the CNU terminal where we could see MVFR/IFR briefly before the activity shifts south and east of the area. Winds will diminish this evening becoming light while VFR prevails across the area.

ICT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.