Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Heat Risk increases this week with heat index values in the 95 to 103 degree range today through Friday.

- Additional chances of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain Friday afternoon and evening, and again over the weekend.

- Monitoring the risk for additional heavy rain and flooding early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Throughout the near term period, a flat subtropical ridge in the mid-levels will extend from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico eastward across the Gulf Coast states and into the southeastern Atlantic Coast. Our forecast area will remain on the northern edge of the ridge, in an environment of weak subsidence and light (10-20 knot) NW flow aloft. In the low-levels, south-southwesterly flow between a high (centered northeast of Bermuda) and a developing low (that will track northeastward from southwestern KS into the western Great Lakes) will continue to sustain a very warm/moist boundary layer airmass characterized by dewpoints in the u60s-m70s.

After a muggy start to the day (featuring lows in the lower 70s and patchy lake/valley fog), abundant sunshine this morning will lead to a rapid increase in temperatures, with highs ranging from the m-u 80s in elevated terrain to the l-m 90s in the valley. Heat index values will once again reach 95-100F for most lower elevation communities, but may also hit the 100-103F range in a few locations. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will remain very low (5-10%) region-wide, with greatest coverage today expected to extend from east-central AL northeastward across northern GA and into western NC. However, if a remote storm manages to materialize (primarily across northeast AL), the thermodynamic environment (CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and DCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) would support strong downburst winds up to 50-60 MPH, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with the most intense cells.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

As a broad trough moves eastward across the Northern/Central Plains on Thursday, warm air advection in the low/mid levels in the southern tier of the CONUS will lead to an eastward expansion of the upr ridge across our region. Similar to today, forecast thermal profiles will feature substantive CAPEs, but a deep layer of dry air aloft and a slightly weaker capping inversion. Shear is also lacking with wind speeds largely less than 30 kts through the entire convective column. A few showers couldn't be ruled out, with better chances probably along the higher terrain, but POPs will be at/below 10 pct.

For Friday and Saturday conditions will begin to change. A cold front in association with the northern trough is expected to reach the TN Valley by late in the day on Friday. Increased moisture pooling ahead of the impending front and the added dynamic lift will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms. The vertical thermal/moisture profiles also begin to look a little more concerning on Friday. Substantial CAPEs >3000 J/kg along with heavy water/moisture loading (PWs ~2 inches) and large theta-e max/min differences in the low to mid levels suggest a good potential for strong/damaging downbursts in the afternoon. The primary limiting factor will be sufficient sfc heating, which will be dependent on the presence of preceding cloud cover in assoc/w the front.

The ultimate movement of the sfc front is uncertain, but there is reasonable potential it may stall in the immediate area. Nevertheless, a developing/expanding ridge centered in the Gulf will tend to maintain a presence of low-lvl convergence across our region on Saturday. This will take place as another, in what will be a series of vort maxima rotate eastward into the region along the broader trough/ridge interface. Western portions of the area will tend to be favored for showers/thunderstorms on Saturday, but this could change with further forecast refinement. After all, this involves timing details on day 3 while there is still a range of differences in the timing scenarios. Nevertheless, at this time, forecast thermal/moisture profiles appear a little less robust on Saturday, but still capable of producing strong updrafts and the potential for downbursts.

Lastly, it should be stated that heat indices could reach upwards of ~97-102 F during the Fri/Sat period, but will be largely dependent on the amount of cloud cover and shower activity that develops, and its timing. Other data from WBGT and Heat Risk suggest that we could be near criteria for enhanced heat messaging, but that's not real clear at the moment given the prospects for increased clouds/showers.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The main concern in the long term period will be the continued and increasing threat for flash flooding as multiple consecutive days of heavy rainfall are forecast. Ridging over the Gulf and zonal flow aloft will become less of an influence on weather locally by early next week as upper troughing begins to dig across the northern Plains and portions of the Midwest. As this happens, a tropical airmass will reside over the Southeastern US as convergent flow increases across the area. Medium to high PoPs will be in place each day through at least Tuesday, peaking during diurnal heating times in the afternoon. As has been the case over the past 24 hours, models continue to drive lower confidence in when the flooding threat will come to an end due to differences regarding when a cold front will push through the area with high pressure to follow. These details should come into better focus over the coming days, but the WPC continues to highlight the threat for excessive rainfall through Sunday with future outlooks likely highlighting the risk through Tuesday. PWATs will range from 2-2.3" with the highest potential on Monday as it stands right now. Steering flow looks a little stronger than this past week, but stronger forcing may result in both stronger and more widespread storms leading to convectively enhanced rainfall rates. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side if better shear is realized, but that seems to be the secondary concern at this time.

With the extra humidity in the air, heat indices will stay in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon through Monday with some relief coming after the front moves through the area Tuesday or Wednesday. Those with interests outdoors will want to keep a close eye on the forecast as we head through the weekend and be prepared for the duel threat of flooding and heat!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast period. Clear skies during the early morning hours will transition to partly cloudy by 16Z as strong warming of the locally moist boundary layer results in the formation of sct-bkn Cu in the 3500-6000 ft layer. Skies will become clear once again this evening as the Cu field begins to dissipate around or shortly before sunset. Mid/high-lvl clouds will begin to return after Midnight ahead of a cold front dropping southeastward thru the OH Valley and Ozarks, and although a few SHRA/TSRA could occur in our region prior to 12Z (well ahead of the front), we will not advertise this in the forecast attm. Sfc winds will veer to SW and increase to 5-10 kts later this morning, and should remain in this range overnight.

HUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.