Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Risk is likely to continue into next week.

- Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances daily, mostly during the afternoon hours. Chances will increase Sunday into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Relatively quiet weather conditions thus far today, as the showery activity hasn't really gotten started yet as of early this afternoon. Expect to see some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two going through the afternoon and into this evening. Southeasterly flow continues to dominate across the region as the Bermuda high persists across the Atlantic and into the southeastern U.S. Hot and humid temperatures also continue through this afternoon, with overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 70s providing a low to moderate level of overnight relief. Thus, those with limited or no relief from the heat and/or are sensitive to the heat should take extra precautions.

Not much change to the weather pattern going into this weekend as subtropical ridging remains overhead. Thus, a mostly persistence forecast through tomorrow as southeasterly flow continues. Enhanced tropical moisture from the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche looks likely to reach the southeast TX area by Sunday as PWAT's rise into the 2.00-2.25" (150% of normal) range. Thus, a relatively quick return to shower and thunderstorm activity should be anticipated Sunday should this scenario come to fruition. Hot and humid conditions will continue through at least Sunday, where maximum apparent temperatures will be in the 97-107F (36-42C) degree range. Thus, residents and visitors should be taking the proper precautions to avoid heat illness, such as drinking adequate amounts of water and taking breaking from direct sun and/or heat during peak heating hours during the afternoon.

While subtropical ridging will remain overhead going into early next week, attention will turn towards a deepening trough across the eastern CONUS. A couple of shortwaves rotating around the main circulation over the Ontario area is expected to result in developing surface low pressure beginning Saturday, with a much more potent reinforcing trough that'll weaken the ridging aloft and may push a cold front across the region as early as late this weekend and into early next week.

Ensembles show pretty considerable spread on timing and resultant amounts, so how things align will be worth monitoring. At the very least, the tropical moisture surging from the south combined with frontal lift would result in heavy rainfall wherever these conditions come together. Early rainfall projections across the region in the Sunday AM-Tuesday AM timeframe are around 1-2" with locally higher amounts (75th percentile) around 3-4". WPC has begun to highlight southeast TX with at least a Marginal Excessive Rainfall risk starting Sunday and increasing to a Slight risk on Monday. Depending on how quickly the decaying frontal boundary moves across the region, heavy rainfall may continue into Wednesday, favoring the coastal areas. Expect cooler temperatures during this period back towards near normal levels.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions is forecast, mostly for ceilings. It'll bounce between the two during the early morning hours and then again late tonight. Winds will be a bit elevated with southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots possible. There is some potential of isolated showers and storms but opted to not include any mention in the TAF because the overall chances are low (<15%).

MARINE

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected throughout the rest of the work week with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags may be warranted at times over the next few days, especially this weekend as seas near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with rain chances rising over the weekend into early next week. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated almost daily for the foreseeable future.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

HGX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.