Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather is forecast through Thursday, which will continue the gradual drop on area rivers.

- Temperatures will be well above normal through Friday, with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees on Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night into Friday. Heavy rainfall may accompany any thunderstorms, with a 20-40% chance of exceeding an inch of rain.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Monday and Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is also expected with this system, with a 30-50% chance of exceeding an inch of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

High pressure will bring continued dry weather and warm conditions to the region through Thursday. Mostly sunny skies are expected today, with increasing clouds on Thursday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Warm air advection ahead of the low will push high temperatures to around 80 degrees west of the Fox Valley Thursday afternoon, with cooler temperatures near the lake. Showers and thunderstorms with the approaching low continue to trend slower, with dry weather expected through Thursday. The warm and dry conditions today will push relative humidities down to 20 to 30 percent, which will result in a slight uptick in wildfire potential; however, this will be mitigated by light wind speeds.

The low will eventually bring a swath of showers and thunderstorm Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves through the region. Although MUCAPEs have increased a bit this run, with values around 1000 J/kg, CAPE profiles are very long, skinny and stretched out. Therefore, severe weather is not anticipated across our area with this upcoming system. What is expected is possible heavy rain at times as probabilities for rain have ticked upwards this run. The probability of an inch or more of rain is up to 20 to 40%, with around a 10% chance of 2 inches or more of rain across central Wisconsin. Any additional rainfall is obviously problematic for flooding, especially if areas receive 2 inches.

After a dry weekend, another low pressure system will bring another swath of showers and thunderstorms into the region Monday and Tuesday. Recent model runs have increased the potential for heavy rain with this system as the probability for an inch or more of rain is 30-50% south of Rhinelander with a 10-20% of 2 inches or more.

AVIATION

for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1052 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR flying conditions will persist through the TAF period.

Clear skies are anticipated through most of the TAF period, though low clouds currently moving into northern MO are expected to push into the southwest part of the forecast area late Wed evening, perhaps reaching CWA/AUW by 05z/Thu. Light NE winds are expected across the region overnight, but should increase from the E-SE by late Wednesday morning.

LLWS will edge into NC WI late in the TAF period, though it should remain northwest of the RHI TAF site.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Minor to moderate flooding continues on many rivers, with major flooding expected to persist on parts of the Wolf River through this morning. Most of the river levels have crested, and with a prolonged stretch of dry weather anticipated through Thursday, water levels should gradually subside through the week.

Those living near rivers should continue to monitor the latest Flood Warnings and statements from the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

GRB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.