Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Exceptionally dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend through Tuesday.

- For Wednesday and Thursday there is the potential for a multi hazard system. The main concerns are severe storms, fire weather, and blowing dust.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The area is current under ridging aloft with a broad area of low pressure across most of the area. This has allowed for mostly sunny skies across the area with winds below 15 mph. These conditions are forecast to continue through the day with temperatures warming into the 80s. We still could see some wind gusts up to 30 mph and briefly critical fire weather conditions for locales on the eastern edge of the low, mainly along a line from Leoti, KS to Norton, KS and east.

Tonight, mostly clear skies are forecast with a few mid to high level clouds passing through. The low is forecast to remain across most of the area, but weaken enough to where the high pressure to the south could push back in. This should help keep the pressure gradient tight enough for winds to remain around 10-15 mph through the night. With the winds, we should mix enough for temperatures to generally remain in the 40s and 50s.

For Tuesday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to amplify a bit and move over the Plains. With clear skies still forecast due to dry air, temperatures should max out in the 80s and 90s. The warmer temperatures currently favor the eastern half of the area. Winds are forecast to remain around 10-15 mph with the area of low pressure broadening out along the High Plains. There is a non-zero chance for a few thunderstorms to form along a dryline that should be draped around the central to eastern part of the area during the afternoon hours. If a storm did form, it would likely be too dry for severe weather or much in the form of rain. The biggest concern would be dry lightning starting fires.

Tuesday night, the surface low is forecast to begin deepening in the Northern High Plains as the next system begins to move in from the west. This should tighten both the pressure and low level height gradient and help winds be around 15 gust 25-30. The low level mixing should again keep temperatures a bit elevated with the forecast current for lows around 50.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 333 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For Wednesday, the upper pattern shows a trough that moves through the region from the west and being located over the Dakotas. After looking at guidance, there is a surface low in the northern central plains. For high temperatures they still remain in the mid 80s to low 90s along with the lows still remaining in the mid 40s to mid 50s. There is higher confidence than the past few days on where the dryline will be located. After looking at Guidance the location of the dryline looks to be between KS Hwy 27 and 83. For this system the main threats for the County Warning Area (CWA) are severe storms, fire weather, and blowing dust potential.

The severe storm threat still continues for the moist side of the dryline. PoPs show percentages of 10-30 with the highest percentages in southern Nebraska. Looking at the environment, there are dew points in the range of 45-55 degrees along with lapse rates of 7-8 C/km could support a few storms. As for CAPE and shear there is sufficient values to support the potential for supercells. The main threats would hail, severe wind, and tornadoes. As for timing, the greatest chance to see storms are Wednesday afternoon into the night.

For fire weather concerns, winds begin to pick up around 15z and begin to hit their peak from 21z-1z Thursday then tapering off around 11z Thursday. The majority of the CWA will have wind gusts in the range of 20-35 mph. The peak winds look to be in 40-50 mph. As for meeting the higher winds, there is a 20-50% chance of seeing winds exceeding 45 mph primarily for Yuma and Kit Carson Counties. RH values still look to to be in the lower teens to single digits. Looking at the GDFI values start Wednesday morning around 30-50 then grow to up to 130 around 21-22z, then decreasing around 3z Thursday. These conditions show signs of supporting explosive fire growth. With this possibility, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued.

Localized blowing dust is also possible as well. Some of the conditions for blowing dust are being shown, but the conditions that are limiting that are the 2-2.5 km lapse rates being higher than 6.5C/km and the sustained winds are less than 33 kts. These conditions suggest that blowing dust will struggle to loft and then mix out if it does lift. This should limit the number of instances where visibility drops to a mile or less.

Once again, there is uncertainty with this system. Assuming the dryline stays around KS Hwy 83 there will be more of a fire weather concern for majority of the CWA. If the dryline moves west and sets up around KS Hwy 27 there will be more of a severe storm threat along with fire weather concerns with the dry side of the dryline.

Moving on to Thursday, the high temperature are in the 70s with the lows forecasted in the 40s. One concern is fire weather for eastern Colorado, guidance is showing the RH Values in the lower teens, along with wind gusts in the 20-35 mph range. The probability of exceeding 35 mph is 15-30%.

For the weekend into Monday, there is a cool down for the high temperatures. Highs look to be in the 50-70s along with lows in the high 20 to mid 30s. The probability of seeing lows less than 32 are about a 15-40% chance. Winds look to remain less of a concern than previous days with gusts up to 30 mph. There are signs of there being precipitation chances, with another upper trough. Looking at PoPs they have improved since the last forecast with values now in the 40-60%. The highest values Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. The main precipitation threat looks to be rain, however if we do reach the low temperatures around freezing we could see a mixed precipitation of rain and snow. Granted this system is a ways out and there is still uncertainties with it, but it is good to see moisture coming into the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with either clear skies or a few clouds above 10000ft. Winds at KGLD have increased to around 15-20 kts, but should lower to 7-12 kts within a few hours as low pressure expands over the area. Winds should remain form the south/southwest through much of the period. There is a chance that winds around 400-500ft could reach 30-40 kts after 06Z tonight, especially for KMCK. Be alert for low level wind shear.

GLD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for COZ252>254. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NEZ079-080.