Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect 12-9pm today due to the combination of southerly winds gusting 20-30mph and low afternoon relative humidity.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 90s.

- Near-Critical to Critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the area Wednesday-Friday.

- Low chance (15-25%) for precipitation arrives Wednesday night (west of Highway 183) and Thursday afternoon/evening (Highway 81 and east).

- Cooler weather arrives Friday behind a cold front, with additional chances for precipitation (20-45%) this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Skies are clear across the area this morning. Where winds remain elevated (gusting 20mph) temperatures are still in the 40s, with temperatures dropping into the 30s where winds are lighter. Aloft northwesterly flow sits over the area with a ridge over the western Rockies and troughing over the eastern U.S. Southerly flow at the surface develops over the area today ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs today will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Breezy southerly winds gusting 20-30mph are expected today across the area. Low afternoon relative humidity values (10-20%) combined with the breezy winds will result in widespread near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across the area. In collaboration with neighbors, a Red Flag Warning was issued from 12pm to 9pm for the entire area. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s

Warmth continues on Tuesday as ridging builds over the area. Highs will soar into the 80s and low 90s, warmest across southwestern portions of the area. Light winds and sunny skies make for an overall warm but pleasant day. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s. Gusty southerly winds are expected across the area on Wednesday, with gusts of 35-45mph. The gusty winds could result in near-critical to critical fire weather conditions (see Fire Weather section for more details).

A trough moves into the Plains Wednesday evening-night, with scattered thunderstorm development possible along a dryline in western Nebraska. These storms could move into far western portions of the area Wednesday night, though the best chances remain west of the area. Additional chances for precipitation arrive Thursday afternoon along the cold front/dryline but this looks to be limited to far eastern portions of the area (Highway 81 and east).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. East-southeast winds will persist through the overnight hours. After sunrise winds shift to the southeast then south by the late morning hours. Southerly winds sustained 10-15kts and gusting around 20kts are expected from the afternoon hours through the end of the TAF period. Around 3-5z LLWS is forecast to develop as the LLJ strengthens.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Highs today will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. This will result in afternoon relative humidity values dropping to 20% or less, driest along/west of Highway 183. As the atmosphere mixes this afternoon, southerly winds gusting 20-30mph are possible across the area. There remains some uncertainty on whether or not the area will reach true critical conditions with gusts over 25mph, but at least widespread near- critical conditions are expected. Given dry fuels, low humidity and winds near critical criteria, a Red Flag Warning was issued for the entire area 12-9pm.

Warm weather continues on Tuesday, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Increasing moisture advection keeps relative humidity values at or above 25% across southeastern portions of the area (southeast of the Tri-Cities). The lowest dewpoints look to be along and northwest of the Tri-Cities at 10-20%. Winds will be lighter on Tuesday across most of the area, with gusts below 20mph. The strongest winds (gusts 20-25mph) look to be along/southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. With the strongest winds expected to overlap with the highest RH, fire weather concerns are low on Tuesday.

Moisture advection increases further on Wednesday, keeping relative humidity values at or above 25% across the area despite highs in the 80s. Despite the higher RH, southerly winds gusting 35-45mph will result in at least elevated fire weather concerns to the area. If the atmosphere mixes greater than currently forecast (lower RH) an area of near-critical to critical conditions may develop given the strong/gusty winds.

A dryline moves through the area Wednesday night with the area under a drier airmass in place on Thursday. Afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday will fall to 10-20%, lowest across northwestern portions of the area. Breezy winds gusting 20-30mph could result in an area of near-critical to critical fire weather conditions, though the exact area of strongest winds is uncertain at this time.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.