Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight. Severe weather is unlikely, but some smaller hail cannot be ruled out.

- A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, and another round of isolated thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, mainly southeast of a line from Osborne, KS to Geneva, NE. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe.

- Next week starts off cool on Sunday, but the 90s return by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Currently, a cold front has pushed into the Nebraska panhandle, and the local area is seeing fairly breezy south-southeasterly winds ahead of this feature. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours, but CAMs show a few thunderstorms developing after midnight tonight in response to the low-level jet. The overall severe threat remains limited thanks but there is enough instability/shear that we could see some elevated storms produce at least small hail. All that being said, the majority of the area is expected to remain dry through sunrise Saturday.

On Saturday, the cold front is expected to continue to push through the area. As a result, northern areas are expected to be ~10 degrees cooler than today, but portions of northern Kansas will likely make another run into the upper 80s. By mid afternoon, CAMs show isolated to scattered storms developing near the front. This activity is expected to focus largely southeast of our area, but could clip our southeastern zones. Any storms that do manage to develop in our area could become strong to severe, thanks to MLCAPE values over 3000J/kg and 0-6km shear 30-40kt.

Behind this cold front, noticably cooler air arrives for Sunday. Overnight low temperatures are favored to dip into the 40s for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to only reach the low-mid 70s. A few light showers cannot be ruled out Sunday evening through Monday, but most areas will likely remain dry.

A warming trend then takes for next week as ridging builds over the western/central CONUS. High temperatures are likely to reach 90s in most areas by Wednesday, and some areas could push 100 degrees. All-in-all precipitation chances look pretty meager through next week, with ensembles potentially hinting at a more active period again starting the following weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

South winds gust 20-25kts through this afternoon under mostly clear skies.

A cold front moves through Saturday morning, and a few thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this front...mainly in the 10-13Z timeframe.

North-northeast winds increase late in the period and into Saturday afternoon.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.