Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will continue this week and into the weekend with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely near the Red River late Thursday night through Friday morning.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (50-80% chance) look to return to the area Sunday into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Early this afternoon, temperatures were in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, which puts heat indices over 100. Skies were mostly sunny with breezy southerly winds of 15-20 MPH gusting to near 30. The upper-level ridge that has resulted in hot and humid conditions over the past few days is flattening out due to broad-scale troughing over the north-central US. This trough will help push a surface cold front southward toward north Texas overnight before stalling out near the Red River. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front overnight in Oklahoma and drift into north Texas by sunrise. Hi-res models show these storms slowly diminishing through midday with very low chances for severe weather. PWAT values along and near the front are around 2.25 inches, so some of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall for areas north of US-380/Denton. Even after storms dissipate, they might leave behind some outflow boundaries for scattered afternoon storms to develop from the Metroplex northward. Overall severe chances look low for this activity, but there is a low (<15%) chance that storms could produce locally gusty winds.

Outside of rain chances, heat and humidity will be the main concern again for Friday as a warm and muggy airmass will persist across the region. High temperatures will be in the low to 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This would put heat indices up to around 103. However, the X factor will be how much lingering cloud cover is leftover from morning convection which would limit high temperatures a bit. Due to this uncertainty, we'll hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this time.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The frontal boundary will dissipate Friday night into Saturday and allow southerly surface flow from the gulf to resume across north Texas. The heat will continue as high temperatures look to reach the upper 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. This would push heat indices to between 101-105, especially across the Metroplex. Anyone conducting outside activities should take proper precautions to avoid heat exhaustion by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade as much as possible.

The pattern looks to change again for Sunday as a trough axis will move to the Great Lakes and flatten the ridge located across south Texas and the western Gulf. The upper-level flow will generally be from the northwest with a couple of embedded shortwaves. Models show another cold front approaching north Texas by Sunday morning which should increase chances for rain and thunderstorms. Storms may develop along the Red River in the morning and slowly push southward through the day, affecting areas mainly from the Metroplex northward. Even if storms weaken or dissipate, a second round could develop by the afternoon. Severe chances look low at this time but localized flooding could become an issue with any slow-moving storms or areas that see multiple rounds of rain.

The southern Plains should remain in a predominantly northwest flow aloft pattern for the first half of next week. The frontal boundary from Sunday should continue further southward on Monday and result in continued rain chances into Tuesday for north Texas. The prevalence of rain and northerly winds should hold temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for Monday and Tuesday. However, on Wednesday, conditions look to dry up again but the return of southerly surface flow should allow high temperatures to push back into the mid 90s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

MVFR ceilings have slowly given way to scattered clouds above 3000ft. Conditions should remain VFR until after 06Z, when MVFR ceilings should start to re-develop from the south. Breezy southerly winds will also continue this afternoon and evening with gusts over 25KT but should decrease after 00Z. Thunderstorms are expected to move into north Texas around the Red River late tonight, but confidence is low that this activity will reach any TAF sites. The potential for thunderstorms will be re-evaluated in later TAF packages.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.