Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and a few storms will increase in coverage across Central and North Texas late today and Tuesday.

- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve late this week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Visible satellite imagery shows an expansive deck of low cloud cover across Central and South Texas with radar showing some light rain mainly in Central TX. All of this activity is in response to modest isentropic ascent within a deep saturated layer ahead of a weak upper disturbance spreading into West Texas. For the rest of this afternoon, we'll see cloud cover gradually expand and lower across all of North Texas. Light rain will spread north with time, although forecast and observed soundings show a substantial dry sub cloud layer north of ongoing precipitation. This dry layer will slowly saturate through the late evening and overnight hours leading to a gradual increase in the coverage of precipitation.

The strongest forcing for ascent will arrive late tonight and early Tuesday morning as the upper disturbance moves across the region in conjunction with the strongest low level warm advection. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across most of North and Central TX although rainfall amounts will generally be light. Forecast soundings indicate a broad area of less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE amidst meager mid level lapse rates. This should support a few instances of thunder, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Rain chances will gradually shift across the area and to our east by late in the day.

Dunn

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Coverage of showers and storms will continue to decrease Tuesday evening but moisture will remain pooled east of I-35 into Wednesday morning. While weak mid level ridging will quickly traverse the region, low level warm moist advection will remain sufficient to support a few scattered showers through the day. We'll maintain some low PoPs generally east of I-35 during this time.

As we get into Thursday through the weekend, the pattern will begin to favor a more typical spring time setup with a sharpening dryline to our west and a warm moist airmass to the east beneath a strong capping inversion. A shortwave will be spreading into the Central Plains Thursday afternoon and should be well removed from North Texas, however, a fairly sharp dryline will be parked just west of the CWA by late afternoon and a branch of the subtropical jet will be nosing in atop a strongly unstable airmass. While the overall chances for deep convection are likely less than 10% across our western counties, there is still some low potential for an isolated severe storm.

Chances will increase on Friday into the weekend as a surface low slowly moves across Oklahoma and the dryline pushes a little farther east into our western counties. Convection should be ongoing along a cold front to our northeast, but may steadily develop farther south along the front/dryline through the late afternoon. Strong afternoon instability will support a threat for severe storms into late Friday evening. This pattern will continue on Saturday and Sunday with a continued threat for severe storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. We'll have to really watch Saturday afternoon/evening as low level winds may remain sharply backed in the vicinity of the aforementioned frontal boundary. If so, any surface based storms would pose a greater threat for tornadoes in the strongly unstable airmass. At this time PoPs will generally remain 20-30% given the overall uncertainty in the finer scale details, but a general increase in severe weather probabilities is expected headed into the weekend.

Dunn

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Widespread cloud cover and some light rain showers prevail across the region at this hour with VFR cigs expected to gradually lower through the day into tonight. MVFR cigs are expected after midnight with IFR cigs expected early Tuesday morning at all TAF sites. The ongoing rain is currently falling from high cloud bases and overall precipitation is light or not reaching the ground at all. This will change tonight as the lower atmosphere moistens and widespread showers and a few storms are expected. The greatest coverage of showers is expected to be early Tuesday morning with precipitation tapering off through the afternoon.

Dunn

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.